Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Standard finance theory argues that changes in exchange rate carry transaction and economic exposures on a firm’s expected future cash flows, which in turn affect the firm value. An extension of the theory further suggests that the foreign exchange effect may also be asymmetric. Although numerous empirical studies have attempted to detect the sensitivity of stock returns to exchange rate changes, conclusive evidence is far and between. The overall mixed findings in the literature could in part due to two specification problems, namely omission of relevant factors proposed by several theories and the presence of conditional heteroscedasticity in share price and exchange rate changes. Most studies on currency risk focus on major industrialized countries, such as Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States (US). A few studies across Asia Pacific have limited their investigation on firms or industries in a single country and examine only the exposure to the US dollar. Recent global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and fears of a sovereign debt crisis in some European countries have resulted in more volatile stock markets and exchange rate movements. This study aims to re-evaluate whether more volatile exchange rate movement has asymmetrically affected returns on the Australian stock market. Given that China, Japan and the European Union have overtaken the United States as Australia’s top three trading partners in recent years, these currencies would have significant impact on its stock market. Using weekly data, this study examines exposure to the Chinese yuan, the Japanse yen, the European euro, the US dollar and the trade-weighted index on the market and sector returns in Australia from January 1990 to June 2011. The generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model is used to overcome the problem of conditional heteroskedasticity in price changes. The empirical results suggest significant exchange rate effects on Australian market returns for all five exchange rate series with asymmetric exposure to the Chinese yuan. At the sector level, domestic market return is found to have more significant influence than exchange rate risk on all sector returns. Of all 10 sectors, the four sectors that do not have any exchange rate exposure are Consumer Goods, Technology, Telecommunication and Utilities. The six sectors that have significant asymmetric exposure to at least one currency are Basic Materials, Consumer Services, Financials, Health Care, Industrials, and Oil & Gas. Of the six sectors, Basic Materials would benefit from the appreciation of the Australian dollar while the other five sectors would benefit from the depreciation of domestic currency. The results also suggest the Chinese yuan exposure on the sector returns has increased in recent years.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».