Validity of Thirlwall's Law in MENA Countries
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The external demand side determinant, of the Middle East and North Africa, economic growth is being studied employing Thirlwall's model. This study employs co-integration technique to test for the existence of long run relationship between real economic growth rates and real non-oil export. The results support the existence of long run relationship between the real export and real economic growth in MENA countries except for Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE which are oil producing countries and their growth rate is driven by other factors, like capital inflow. The results divide the sample countries into two groups, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and UAE have positive differences between the actual and the predicted growth rates which is interpreted as high income elasticity of imports demand where there is high import volume effect as a result of any increase in real income growth. Moreover, Saudi Arabia and UAE have high capital inflow since they are oil producing countries, while the TOT in Tunisia and Syria is changing unfavorably. Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, and Yemen have negative differences between the actual and the predicted growth rates. These negative differences can be interpreted as a slower growth rate in the capital inflow than the growth rate in exports volume, and to the positive relative price effect.(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)IntroductionCurrent account imbalances have become an obvious issue in transition economies. According to the international trade theory, the causes behind the growing current account deficits are loss of export competitiveness, strong imports due to domestic modernization needs, appearance of appreciation pressures either because of excessive capital inflows or mismanagement of monetary policy, and inadequate restructuring of domestic firms (Beko, 2003).Landesmann and Poschl (1996) report the existence of a growing body of research which emphasizes that balance of payment (BOP thereafter) deficits cause economic growth limitations. The channels of influence of BOP on economic growth have been studied empirically by relatively large body of literature. Thirlwall (1979), Thirlwall and Hussain (1982) and Thirlwall (1983) have introduced a model to discuss the demand side influence on economic growth through BOP factors (explanation of the Thirlwall' s law follows in a later section). A series of empirical research work has been performed and they support the BOP growth hypothesis. Bairam and Dempster (1991), Landesmann and Poschl (1996), Alonso and Garcimartin (1998), Moreno-Brid and Perez (1999) and Turner (1999) have tested the impact of BOP on economic growth through testing the validity of Thirlwall' s law. However, some researchers consider income as the main factor of adjustment in exportimport flows and assume the ineffectiveness of prices or exchange rates to influence long-run growth, whereas others imply that if growth constraints exist in the economy, they must lie in deficient demand and not in the lack of supply. Atesoglu (1993), (1994) and (1995) and Heike (1997) apply the BOP constraint growth model to the U.S. and Canadian Economies. Their finding, support Thirlwall's model hypothesis in developed countries. They also support the existence of a long run relationship between real export and real economic growth.Another set of research studies has been testing the validity of the BOP constraint growth model in developing countries. Moreno-Brid (1998) provides support to the BOP constraint growth model in Mexico. His results show significant and positive cointegration between Mexico's real export and real economic growth. Elliott and Rhodd (1999) extend Thirlwall's model by including the effect of debt servicing, this improvement narrow the differences between the actual and the predicted rate of economic growth. Ferreira and Canuto (2003) introduce the effect of BOP current account interest, dividends and profit on economic growth of Brazil. …
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| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,002 | 0,000 |
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| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
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| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
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