Tools and methods to improve emergency planning for floods
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The aim of this research was to address how emergency planning for floods and dams can be improved to reduce loss of life. The thesis comprises nine publications. Each publication addresses research questions which feed into the overarching aim. Publications 1 and 2 review historic flood events which occurred in England in 1953 and in France in 2010, leading to a significant loss of life, partly because of deficiencies in emergency planning. Publications 3, 4 and 5 assess how effective emergency plans for floods can reduce fatalities. Publication 3 consolidates lessons learnt from two low-income countries, Bangladesh and Cuba, where there has been an appreciable decrease in deaths from coastal surges and how these are relevant to high-income countries such as the USA. A review of the methods and tools available to increase the effectiveness of emergency plans for floods is provided in Publication 5. Publication 6 follows on from one of the overarching findings of Publications 1 to 5, which is that there is a requirement for a method via which emergency plans for floods can be assessed and improved. Publication 6 details three cases studies in England, France and The Netherlands where a method was developed and applied to assess and to improve emergency plans for floods. Papers 7, 8 and 9 describe how an agent-based model, which represents the dynamic interaction of people, vehicles and buildings with the floodwater or mudflows, can be used to investigate different emergency planning scenarios in order to minimise the potential loss of life from different sources of flooding including dam failures. These publications show how the use of agent-based models, to investigate the emergency management options for floods, allows a counterfactual analysis to be easily undertaken. Counterfactual analysis is increasingly used in the field of emergency management because it enables emergency planners to show causal relationships between interventions. This allows interventions such as increasing the number of safe havens, use of new evacuation routes and improved early warnings to be compared with the existing situation, in the context of the risks that floods pose to people. The research work detailed in the nine publications has informed both policy and practice. For example, Publication 3 helped to inform the US government’s policy on increasing the resilience of vulnerable coastal in the USA to floods. The agent-based model, described in Papers 7, 8 and 9, has been used to inform emergency plans for dams in Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Peru and the USA. Overall, this series of publications points towards the need for continuous improvements in the emergency planning for low probability - high consequence flood events and the part agent-based models can play in this.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,009 | 0,033 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,006 | 0,003 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Communication savante | 0,005 | 0,007 |
| Science ouverte | 0,003 | 0,004 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,002 | 0,003 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,018 | 0,005 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».