Uranium stocks - Data and Analysis
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
<div dir="auto" class="body markup"> <h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget">If I were to boil the thesis down to a few bullets, I’d say: <div id="§if-i-were-to-boil-the-thesis-down-to-a-few-bullets-id-say" class="header-anchor-widget"> <div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container"><a class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://investy4l.substack.com/i/41001682/if-i-were-to-boil-the-thesis-down-to-a-few-bullets-id-say"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="header-anchor-widget-icon"> <path d="M10 13a5 5 0 007.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 00-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path> <path d="M14 11a5 5 0 00-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 007.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path> </svg> </a></div> </div> </h3> <ul> <li><p><span>Uranium is an essential input for nuclear reactors with&nbsp;</span><strong>no substitute. </strong><span>Following the Fukushima disaster, there was a massive supply glut as reactors were taken offline due to safety concerns </span><br> </p></li> <li><p><span>Now a supply crunch is looming, with a current market deficit of ~40m lbs </span><br></p></li> <li><p><span>Nuclear power plants </span><em>usually</em><span> contract uranium supplies several years out before their inventory gets run down. Due to the oversupply coming out of the previous cycle, however, they have been purchasing additional supply needs in the spot market instead of contracting years in advance.</span><br> </p></li> <li><p><span><a href="https://alpharesearch.io/sec-filings/13f-filings">13f filings</a> indicate that the power plants’ coverage rates (contracted lbs of uranium supply / lbs of uranium required) are beginning to trend below 100%, indicating utilities have less locked-in supply than they need to keep running their reactors, at a time when market supply is tightening (note utilities typically look to maintain coverage ratios well above 100% to ensure no unforeseen shortfalls)</span><br> </p></li> <li><p><span>Global demand for uranium is increasing, with ~56 new reactors under construction an a further 99 in planning currently. Nuclear power currently generates ~10% of the world’s electricity but with the closure of coal and fossil fuel power plants due to ESG considerations, nuclear energy is increasingly being seen as the only viable way to make up up the lost energy capacity. </span><br> </p></li> </ul> <p><em><strong>Putting all of this together</strong></em><span>, a fundamental supply/demand imbalance for an essential commodity with price insensitive buyers and ESG tailwinds makes the bull case extremely compelling.</span> </p> <p>But a picture is worth a thousand words, so some historic charts probably best provide a sense of the future upside expected in the next cycle. Using the data of <a href="https://alpharesearch.io/sec-filings/form-8k">form 8k</a>, at the peak of the previous uranium bull market in 2007 (when there was no supply deficit) the uranium spot price reached ~$136/lb after a run up from ~$15/share at the start of 2004 (~9x increase). </p> <p>Today the current price is ~$42/lb with the view that the price will reach new highs in this coming cycle:</p> <div class="captioned-image-container"> <figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F99f1cca9-5dc9-49bd-b43f-9fecdf6300d1_893x682.png"> <picture> <source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F99f1cca9-5dc9-49bd-b43f-9fecdf6300d1_893x682.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F99f1cca9-5dc9-49bd-b43f-9fecdf6300d1_893x682.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F99f1cca9-5dc9-49bd-b43f-9fecdf6300d1_893x682.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F99f1cca9-5dc9-49bd-b43f-9fecdf6300d1_893x682.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"> <img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F99f1cca9-5dc9-49bd-b43f-9fecdf6300d1_893x682.png" width="893" height="682" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/99f1cca9-5dc9-49bd-b43f-9fecdf6300d1_893x682.png&quot;,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:682,&quot;width&quot;:893,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:54361,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F99f1cca9-5dc9-49bd-b43f-9fecdf6300d1_893x682.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F99f1cca9-5dc9-49bd-b43f-9fecdf6300d1_893x682.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F99f1cca9-5dc9-49bd-b43f-9fecdf6300d1_893x682.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F99f1cca9-5dc9-49bd-b43f-9fecdf6300d1_893x682.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture> </a></figure> </div> <p></p> <p>Many uranium investors, based on the majority of form <a href="https://alpharesearch.io/sec-filings/10q">10q</a>, focus on the miners rather than the commodity as being the way to play the new uranium bull market, as these are more levered to price increases in the underlying commodity. &nbsp;</p> <p><strong><span>The share price for Canadian-based Cameco Corporation (</span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CCO:CN" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">CCO&nbsp;</a><span>/&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CCJ:US" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">CCJ</a><span>, the second largest uranium producer in the world) increased from USD $3/share to $55/share ( ~18x bagger) during the previous bull market from ~2004 – 2007:</span></strong> </p> <div class="captioned-image-container"> <figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F29669dcd-09b9-444b-90c1-4fb78049f6b2_2400x1240.png"> <picture> <source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F29669dcd-09b9-444b-90c1-4fb78049f6b2_2400x1240.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F29669dcd-09b9-444b-90c1-4fb78049f6b2_2400x1240.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F29669dcd-09b9-444b-90c1-4fb78049f6b2_2400x1240.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F29669dcd-09b9-444b-90c1-4fb78049f6b2_2400x1240.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"> <img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F29669dcd-09b9-444b-90c1-4fb78049f6b2_2400x1240.png" width="1456" height="752" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/29669dcd-09b9-444b-90c1-4fb78049f6b2_2400x1240.png&quot;,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:752,&quot;width&quot;:14
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,015 | 0,009 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,005 | 0,009 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,007 | 0,021 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,006 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,094 | 0,002 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; les deux têtes enseignantes s’accordent sur ce qui est montré ici.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».