Uranium stocks - Data and Analysis

If I were to boil the thesis down to a few bullets, I’d say: Uranium is an essential input for nuclear reactors with no substitute. Following the Fukushima disaster, there was a massive supply glut as reactors were taken offline due to safety concerns Now a supply crunch is looming, with a current market deficit of ~40m lbs Nuclear power plants usually contract uranium supplies several years out before their inventory gets run down. Due to the oversupply coming out of the previous cycle, however, they have been purchasing additional supply needs in the spot market instead of contracting years in advance. 13f filings indicate that the power plants’ coverage rates (contracted lbs of uranium supply / lbs of uranium required) are beginning to trend below 100%, indicating utilities have less locked-in supply than they need to keep running their reactors, at a time when market supply is tightening (note utilities typically look to maintain coverage ratios well above 100% to ensure no unforeseen shortfalls) Global demand for uranium is increasing, with ~56 new reactors under construction an a further 99 in planning currently. Nuclear power currently generates ~10% of the world’s electricity but with the closure of coal and fossil fuel power plants due to ESG considerations, nuclear energy is increasingly being seen as the only viable way to make up up the lost energy capacity. Putting all of this together, a fundamental supply/demand imbalance for an essential commodity with price insensitive buyers and ESG tailwinds makes the bull case extremely compelling. But a picture is worth a thousand words, so some historic charts probably best provide a sense of the future upside expected in the next cycle. Using the data of form 8k, at the peak of the previous uranium bull market in 2007 (when there was no supply deficit) the uranium spot price reached ~$136/lb after a run up from ~$15/share at the start of 2004 (~9x increase). Today the current price is ~$42/lb with the view that the price will reach new highs in this coming cycle: Many uranium investors, based on the majority of form 10q, focus on the miners rather than the commodity as being the way to play the new uranium bull market, as these are more levered to price increases in the underlying commodity. The share price for Canadian-based Cameco Corporation (CCO / CCJ, the second largest uranium producer in the world) increased from USD $3/share to $55/share ( ~18x bagger) during the previous bull market from ~2004 – 2007:

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