The Credibility of Collective Defense Commitments in NATO in the Early Stages of Trump’s Second Term

This study is an ad hoc follow-up to the longitudinal investigation of public views on collective defense commitments during the second Trump presidential administration (see “Public Views on Collective Defense in NATO during the Second Trump Administration: A Longitudinal Study” and “NATO’s Collective Defense Credibility during the Second Trump Administration: A Longitudinal Study in Russia” on OSF). We collect survey data three times annually from the following countries: the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Poland, Germany, and the Russian Federation. Our primary aim is to test whether Trump’s rhetoric and approach to alliance management lead to discernible shifts in public perceptions of and support for collective defense commitments in NATO. On the one hand, some experts argue that Trump’s approach undermines the credibility of U.S. commitments to NATO allies, which could, in turn, erode the credibility of NATO’s system of collective defense as a whole. On the other hand, some argue that Trump’s unconventional approach will force European allies to make major investments in their defense, which could strengthen NATO’s military capabilities and, consequently, enhance the credibility of collective defense commitments. We propose competing hypotheses to account for these countervailing developments (while noting that they could potentially offset one another, resulting in no net change in public views of collective defense). In the original preregistration, we noted our intention to retain the flexibility to conduct ad hoc surveys following significant future events that may plausibly influence public attitudes in this area. As of early March 2025, we have experienced an unprecedently belligerent rhetoric with respect to the European allies and Ukraine, a cessation of the U.S. military assistance to Kyiv, and a reproachment with the Russian Federation. Many foreign policy commentators have noted that these significant events have already damaged the credibility of U.S. commitments to NATO. This ad hoc round of survey aims to investigate the impact of these events by comparing the current views on collective defense credibility with those we found in our first survey round in January 2025. Furthermore, we will collect new data from samples of the U.S. and U.K. government employees to investigate potential public-elite gaps in these attitudes.

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