The Alternative Characteristic (AC) Model as Implemented for the BC Hydro SSHAC 3 Seismic Source Model
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Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Magnitude-frequency recurrence models have long been a subject of seismological interest, and are a critical component of PSHA, since earthquake rates determine ground motion exceedance rates. While varieties of the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) truncated exponential recurrence model have long been verified and applied in many cases, it has been recognized that rates of larger earthquakes, based on historical occurrence and/or paleoseismic studies, sometimes show higher rates than the GR model predicts from smaller-magnitude events. A “characteristic” recurrence model accounting for such observations was published in 1985 by Youngs and Coppersmith, where “characteristic” refers to the larger earthquakes occurring at a higher-than-GR rate. This model is commonly used as an alternative to the GR model in PSHA studies, and is strictly defined: an exponential portion for smaller magnitude events, and a single rate for “characteristic” larger-magnitude events over a range of 0.5 magnitude unit that is dependent on properties of the exponential portion. Examination of observed earthquake recurrence in the areal zones of the BC Hydro PSHA seismic source model showed that several zones exhibited patterns similar to the 1985 characteristic model. These zones were the Puget Lowlands, Intermountain Seismic Belt, Olympic Peninsula and Southern Coastal Margin (predominantly Vancouver Island). Attempts to fit the observed earthquake recurrence to the standard 1985 characteristic model were unsuccessful. Therefore an effort to qualitatively fit these data to a functional form similar to the incremental form of the 1985 model was made by experimenting with different functional forms for the “characteristic” part of the 1985 model. The best fit was found by changing the slope of the characteristic part from zero (flat) to 0.3, and increasing its width from 0.5 to 1.0 magnitude units. An additional parameter allows the fraction of the total moment rate in the exponential and characteristic parts of the curve to be specified. For the four areal zones examined, the fraction assigned to the characteristic part ranged from 0.94 to 0.98. For use in the BC Hydro PSHA an average value of 0.96 was used. Termed the alternative characteristic (AC) model, it was applied to each areal zone in the seismic source model, with a weight influenced by whether paleoseismic information already existed to more reliably constrain the rates of large-magnitude events, or whether rates of historic seismicity tended to be approximately consistent with it. If these bases did not exist, it was weighted equally with the GR model.
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle