Investment: A Survey of Models with Some Implications for the Effects of Monetary Policy
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Investment is one of several linkages through which monetary policy may influence the economy. The nature of the presumed linkage has been defined in various theories of investment, each apparently emphasizing a different channel of influence. It is useful, therefore, to understand the differences among the theories by assessing their strengths and weaknesses from both theoretical and empirical points of view, in order to arrive at a clearer understanding of the issues involved in determining the impact of monetary policy on aggregate demand. The four models of investment surveyed in this report, chosen on the basis of popularity and vintage, are the accelerator, the cash flow, the securities valuation or Tobin's q, and the standard neoclassical models. Briefly, the accelerator model attributes variations in net investment to movements in the demand for output and disregards direct sensitivity to monetary or fiscal parameters. The cash flow model points to corporate profits and depreciation allowances as the major driving force behind investment demand. The securities valuation or Tobin's q model indicates that the driving force of investment is the market value of the real capital stock (as determined in the securities market) relative to its replacement value. In this model, monetary factors affect investment via their effect on the valuation of capital in the stock market. The standard neoclassical model suggests two possible investment specifications, (a) as a function of output and relative factor prices, and (b) as a function of output and the relative prices of output and capital. Under specific conditions the two specifications are theoretically equivalent. In this model the implicit rental price of capital is defined to be a function of a number of policy levers, including the discount rate, thus providing a direct linkage to monetary policy. These investment models are surveyed in a fashion similar to U.S. studies by Charles Bischoff and Peter Clark; that is, they are compared on the basis of motivating theory, estimation properties, intra- and extra-sample simulation performance and their implications for the effects of monetary policy. The empirical findings of the survey indicate that there is not much difference among the models when they are assessed on their ability to track investment. When their theoretical properties are compared, however, the standard neoclassical model is found to be the most appropriate framework for determining the effects of monetary policy on investment as well as for future research. The survey does not explore at least two important issues: the effect on investment of inflation and uncertainty and the impact of the rise in energy prices. These issues represent, in themselves, major research projects.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,004 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,002 | 0,004 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Communication savante | 0,003 | 0,004 |
| Science ouverte | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,003 | 0,003 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,006 | 0,002 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».