Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Riding Mountain National Park of Canada under differing levels of warming
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Riding Mountains National Park is among the bottom 45% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. Most of the park is projected to be resilient to climate change to between 1.5° - 2°C. Above 2°C, most of the park is projected to require increasing levels of adaptation effort. Averaged over the entire area of this park, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 45.4% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with none of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. If warming levels were held to 2°C, only 27.2% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 77.4% of its terrestrial biodiversity. However, if warming were held to 1.5°C then 94.8% of the park would be a climate refugia for biodiversity. Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by -0.7° - +2.0°C (December). With warming levels of 2.0°C the new average monthly temperature in June-October is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 3 years in 1961-1990, except for July having a new average temperature equivalent to that experienced 1 in 20 years. Four months have seen decreases in precipitation with the rest seeing increases. Models project that all months except July-September will become wetter. The combination of increased temperatures and reduced rainfall indicate that there could be an increase in fire risk. The number of months classified as being in severe drought have dropped substantially between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015. Under the climate change scenarios examined the number of months in severe drought are projected to increase, doubling with 2°C warming. By 3°C warming, severe droughts of longer than one year are projected to occur. Biodiversity adaptation options generally allow for business-as-usual conservation, taking into account changes in extreme events to 1.5°C warming. Once warming exceeds 2°C most of the park will need increasing levels of adaptation effort. By 4°C warming, many areas of the park are projected to be in transition to new habitats and insect assemblages.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,004 | 0,004 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».