Global and regional prevalence of multimorbidity in the adult population in community settings: a systematic review and meta-analysis
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Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Knowing the prevalence of multimorbidity among adults across continents is a crucial piece of information for achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3.4, which calls for reducing premature death due to non-communicable diseases. A high prevalence of multimorbidity indicates high mortality and increased healthcare utilization. We aimed to understand the prevalence of multimorbidity across WHO geographic regions among adults.We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of surveys designed to estimate the prevalence of multimorbidity among adults in community settings. We searched PubMed, ScienceDirect, Embase and Google Scholar databases for studies published between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2021. The random-effects model estimated the pooled proportion of multimorbidity in adults. Heterogeneity was quantified using I2 statistics. We performed subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses based on continents, age, gender, multimorbidity definition, study periods and sample size. The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020150945).We analyzed data from 126 peer-reviewed studies that included nearly 15.4 million people (32.1% were male) with a weighted mean age of 56.94 years (standard deviation of 10.84 years) from 54 countries around the world. The overall global prevalence of multimorbidity was 37.2% (95% CI = 34.9-39.4%). South America (45.7%, 95% CI = 39.0-52.5) had the highest prevalence of multimorbidity, followed by North America (43.1%, 95% CI = 32.3-53.8%), Europe (39.2%, 95% CI = 33.2-45.2%), and Asia (35%, 95% CI = 31.4-38.5%). The subgroup study highlights that multimorbidity is more prevalent in females (39.4%, 95% CI = 36.4-42.4%) than males (32.8%, 95% CI = 30.0-35.6%). More than half of the adult population worldwide above 60 years of age had multimorbid conditions (51.0%, 95% CI = 44.1-58.0%). Multimorbidity has become increasingly prevalent in the last two decades, while the prevalence appears to have stayed stable in the recent decade among adults globally.The multimorbidity patterns by geographic regions, time, age, and gender suggest noticeable demographic and regional differences in the burden of multimorbidity. According to insights about prevalence among adults, priority is required for effective and integrative interventions for older adults from South America, Europe, and North America. A high prevalence of multimorbidity among adults from South America suggests immediate interventions are needed to reduce the burden of morbidity. Furthermore, the high prevalence trend in the last two decades indicates that the global burden of multimorbidity continues at the same pace. The low prevalence in Africa suggests that there may be many undiagnosed chronic illness patients in Africa.None.
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,003 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,002 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle