Detecting Ranavirus Presence In Vermont Through Avian Species And Edna
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Amphibian populations are declining globally and are seriously threatened by emerging infectious diseases. Most local amphibian die-offs are caused by Ranavirus (Family: Iridoviridae), and these die-offs can contribute to the risk of local population extinction. Ranaviruses are not particularly well studied, specifically, not much is known about their transmission dynamics and the impact that different transmission routes may have on amphibian population dynamics. The primary pathways for Ranavirus transmission are direct contact, necrophagy (consumption of dead individuals), and transmission through contact with virions in the water. My work specifically focuses on transmission through water and through contact with bird feathers, and its consequences for Ranavirus transmission to amphibian populations throughout the state of Vermont. I also investigated whether natural bodies of water that contain amphibian populations can test positive for Ranavirus and at what rate the virus persists across years. I investigated the ability for avian species to host Ranavirus on their wetted feathers by using the Canada goose (Branta canadensis) as a model study species. In the summer of 2019, 192 individuals of B. canadensis were swabbed along their wet abdomens to test for Ranavirus presence. To identify whether Ranavirus could be detected in natural bodies of water throughout Vermont, environmental DNA (eDNA) was collected from geese feathers and water sources at sites that had been previously tested for Ranavirus presence in amphibian populations. With quantitative PCR, viral DNA was extracted and amplified to test for the presence of Ranavirus. 13.9% of swab samples and 4.5% of filter samples tested positive for Ranavirus. Swab samples detected significantly more virus than filter samples (P<0.0005). Average viral load between samples was significantly higher in swab samples among sites (P<0.05). Ranavirus prevalence was estimated from a beta distribution and was significantly higher in swab samples (0.139, 95% CI [0.191, 0.094]) when compared to filters (0.045, 95% CI [0.082,0.018]). Building on the key result that that avian species can carry Ranavirus on their wetted feathers, I constructed a compartmental ordinary differential equation (ODE) model of the population dynamics of susceptible, infected, and dead amphibians. Although this initial model is too basic to accurately predict amphibian disease dynamics, it will be useful to understand whether geese are potential vectors of transmission of Ranavirus. In this paper I describe the structure of the model and how I will modify it to create a spatially explicit network model that predicts transmission through space and time and uses mark-recapture data to visualize how geese may visit different areas. This thesis documents the first reports of Ranavirus being detected on the feathers of waterbirds and the first reports of Ranavirus being detected in natural bodies of water in Vermont.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,002 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,002 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».