Mathematical modelling of population dynamics of khapra beetle (Trogoderma granarium)
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Trogoderma granarium Everts (Coleoptera: Dermestidae), generally known as the khapra beetle, is found in the hot and dry regions of North Africa, the Middle East, and India. It is not established elsewhere and is classified as a quarantine pest in Canada and several other countries. It is one of the economically important quarantine pests that mainly feeds on food grain and proteinaceous materials. Its total lifespan lasts approximately 40 to 45 d under favourable environmental conditions. Extreme temperatures, high RH, high larval densities, or low food quality can induce a larval diapause, where the insect can survive for up to a few years, occasionally feeding and molting. The diapausing larvae are resistant to heat, cold, and insecticides, that aids in surviving the adverse conditions. Ecological modelling is a helpful tool to study the population dynamics of biological systems. The objective of this study was to develop mathematical models to calculate the survival and development of the khapra beetle under different environmental conditions such as temperature, RH, and food quality. The developed models were used to estimate the development and survival of the khapra beetle under Canadian grain storage conditions. The factors affecting the development and mortality of the khapra beetle were reviewed, and appropriate assumptions were made for developing the mathematical equations using the Physi-Biological age method. This method is based on temperature-driven development rate, and factors such as RH and food quality were considered as multipliers. Mathematical equations were developed to calculate the development and mortality of adults, eggs, larvae, pupae, and oviposition and diapause under different environmental conditions. Algorithms were developed to simulate the population dynamics for each day and coded in C++. The developed models were validated against the literature data and evaluated using linear regression, R2 and MSE. Population dynamics were simulated under Canadian grain storage conditions, and it was found that the diapausing larvae survived the extremely cold conditions found in Canadian grain. In contrast, insects in other stages did not survive. The surviving larvae developed to pupae and adults, and females began laying eggs once the temperature became warmer in the grain bins.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».