OPTIMAL WIND ENERGY PENETRATION MODEL FOR PAKISTAN

An affordable, economic and sustainable electric energy system remains a challenging question for the researchers due to constraints on primary energy supply and technology economics. Modeling the energy system and simulating the scenarios is a scientific way to arrive at informed policy decisions for an energy system for a country. 
\nThe historical generation mix of the ex-WAPDA system, which is now managed by National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC) was Hydro dominant since its birth till year 1992. Subsequently the thermal power share started substituting hydropower shifting the generation dominance to thermal. Pakistan is one of the most fortunate countries of the world, which is having abundant hydropower potential of 46,000MW. Unfortunately due to lack of consensus on political scene, development of several identified hydro sites into power production projects could not achieved, resulting acute load shedding due to shortage of power generation. Presently generation mix is dominant by expensive fossil fuels and there is dire need to exploit alternate energy resources. The most promising option for Pakistan power sector is wind power having estimated potential of 140,000 MW. In present research efforts have been made in developing optimal wind energy penetration model for Pakistan having long term sustainable wind power to meet demand under electricity market through policy incentives, mechanism and regulations with least cost flow along the complete value chain including manufacturing, implementation and penetration. 
\nInternational data analysis and literature review shows that the success of wind deployment is in the success of local manufacturing of wind turbines. However, stable and sizeable level of wind deployment is pre-requisite for the manufacturing of wind turbines locally. The international experience shows that optimal level of wind power deployment to ensure the wind manufacturing is in the range of 400-500MW. In modeling energy system for Pakistan with wind power, a deployment level of 550MW has been determined. 
\nTo model the energy system with wind power, the economic viability, consumer's affordability, security of supply, sustainability and diversity were considered as key parameters to design the energy scenarios. Three scenarios with the optimal level of 550MW of wind power, including i) base scenario with existing mix, ii) Policy scenario with hydro & coal, and iii) sustainability scenario with hydro & nuclear have been modeled over a period 2014-2035 to assess the policy 
\ncost comparing with no wind base case. Requisite data collected from local and international data sources including International Energy Agency (IEA), United Stated Energy Information Administration (EIA) and International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), NEPRA and planning department. The energy system simulated and analyzed in the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) software environment. 
\n Three scenarios including i) Governments ongoing initiatives as Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, ii) Policy Scenario, targeting 550 MW wind and iii) Sustainability Scenario 550 MW wind were simulated with full self-sufficiency and energy security. The results of the simulation of these scenarios show that policy scenario when compared with base case result 347 million tons more carbon dioxide emissions and cost saving of 4.8 billion US$ in net present value. So the cost saving is 14US$ per ton of excess carbon dioxide emissions. Whereas, the sustainability scenario when compared with base case result in 2177 million carbon dioxide emissions saving at an additional cost of 19.8 billion USD in net present value. So the cost of emission reduction is 9 US$ per ton of carbon dioxide emissions, which is much less than the policy cost of 15 US$ per ton in Alberta energy system, Canada. So, this international benchmark comparison shows that it's economically viable for government to devise the policy incentives to meet the objective of self-sufficiency and environmental sustainability. This sustainability scenario can be used to achieve environmental targets, if imposed under the United Nations Framework of Climate Change (UNFCC) and design climate change policies. 
\nThe international experience shows that a country specific optimal model is pre-requisite for the wind turbine manufacturing locally to achieve the desired energy system with wind penetration in Pakistan. The results of the policy cost are encouraging to develop a regulatory and policy model for the local manufacturing of wind turbine in Pakistan as well. It will add to economic benefits with local employment generation to reduce the effective policy cost. A wind turbine manufacturing regulatory and policy model establishing the Wind Technology Investment Company, Wind Development Investment Company and Wind Technology Development Bank etc. with their optimal architecture have been proposed. This model is with the government incentives, firm commitments and revolving endowment for sustainable supply of wind turbines manufactured locally with employing full local technical expertise. This will be an optimal model with an effective policy framework to ensure foreign investment, fair wind power pricing, institutional reforms in management and technology, local manufacturing/employment and technical base in Pakistan.

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