Country report: Belize

M any countries in the developing world, particularly in Asia, Latin A m erica and the Caribbean, are showing signs o f such a transition.However, the tim ing o f the onset o f the dem ographic transition as well as the pace o f this process varies considerably from region to region as well as from country2 to country and w ithin regions and subregions.Population ageing in the Caribbean generally follows the global trends outlined above.It is estim ated that the Caribbean will experience absolute and relative increases in the elderly3 population over the next 50 years as the U nited N ations Population D ivision has projected that this age-group, w hich constituted 4.5 per cent o f the region's population in 1950, will increase to 18 per cent in 2050.Already relatively advanced are Barbados, Cuba and Puerto Rico, whereas Haiti, Belize, the D om inican Republic and Guyana are still having rather young populations.By the year 2000, six Caribbean countries had already found more than 10 per cent o f their populations over the age o f 60 years and m ost o f the other countries in this hem isphere are expected to reach this mark around the year 2010.By 2025, Barbados and Cuba are projected to be the first countries in the Caribbean w ith a quarter o f their population to be over age 60.By the year 2050 these projections foresee this percentage to increase to one third for these tw o countries, along w ith Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana.This rapid transition from a relatively young population to an older population is likely to place an additional burden on the very fragile econom ies o f the Caribbean, w hich are characterized by small domestic markets, insularity and rem oteness and the dependence on a narrow range o f goods and services produced.Further, the looming threat o f natural disasters even further infringes sustainable socio-economic developm ent in the Caribbean.W ith little perspective to enhance econom ic perform ance and to increase financial revenues as is the case for m ost o f the countries in the Caribbean, this 'silent revolution' is and will pose a new challenge on the rather volatile socio-economic structures o f Caribbean countries.H ow ever this transition from larger to sm aller families opens a w indow o f opportunity, w ith declining fertility and the onset o f population ageing, the econom ically active population has to support proportionally less young and older dependants.This offers a unique chance to policy makers to invest now in health, education and job-creation for the younger generations to ensure that the resulting econom ic gains will im prove the overall quality o f life and consequently reduce the burden not only on governments, but also on individuals supporting the older generations in the near future.However, opportunities to take advantage o f the 'dem ographic bonus' are to an increasing extent threatened by the fast spreading H IV/AID S pandem ic in several countries in the Caribbean.W hile the epidemic im pacts directly on the region's working population, it also affects the older generation, as roughly 11 per cent o f the cases are being diagnosed in persons over the age o f 50, and indirectly as m ore and more 2 The term 'country' as used in the text o f this publication also refers, as appropriate, to territories or areas.3 The age-group 'older persons' is defined by the United Nations as the group o f those persons who are 60 years and older, whereas the 'oldest old ' age group comprises persons aged 80 years and over.Others, for example the WHO, define older persons as those who are over 65 years old.

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