The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Crisis in the labour markets and countercyclical responses

As predicted in the first bulletin, produced jointly by the Economic Commission for Latin
\nAmerica and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the International Labour Organization (ILO),
\nthe impact of the economic crisis continued to be felt in Latin America and the Caribbean
\nduring the second quarter of 2009. Regional exports of goods and services contracted in
\nresponse to sluggish demand on international markets, while remittances and foreign direct
\ninvestment flows continued to fall, credit lost its buoyancy and the total wage bill diminished,
\nowing mainly to job losses. As a result, the growth forecasts of many countries had to be
\nadjusted downwards. Since the end of 2008, the countries of the region had started to
\nimplement countercyclical policies —albeit with significant differences— in an effort to use
\npublic spending to counter flagging investment and consumer-spending levels and boost
\naggregate demand.
\nIn this second bulletin, ECLAC and ILO show how the impact of the crisis has deepened
\nin labour markets in the region in the first half of the year and examine existing options and
\nthe outcome of public-infrastructure and emergency employment programmes designed to
\nmitigate the impact of the crisis on the labour market.
\nThe unemployment rate has risen in practically all countries compared with the previous
\nyear and this situation worsened further in the second quarter, when urban unemployment
\nexceeded the rate of the corresponding period in 2008 by 1 percentage point (to stand at
\n8.5%, up from 7.5%), while in the first quarter, the variation was 0.6 of a percentage point.
\nLabour indicators also point to an increase in informality, a decline in employment with social
\nprotection and a decrease in full-time employment.
\nLabour-market trends observed in the first half-year, together with the forecast for
\na 1.9% decline in regional GDP in 2009, suggest that the average annual rate of urban
\nunemployment in the region will be close to 8.5%. This forecast is slightly less pessimistic
\nthan the estimate given in the first bulletin; this is attributable to the fall in the participation
\nrate in the first half-year to levels that are expected to remain low for the rest of the year.
\nWithout this reduction in the labour supply, due largely to the “discouragement effect”, the
\nannual average urban unemployment rate would stand at between 8.8% and 8.9%. Thus,
\nthe open urban unemployment figure would increase by 2.5 million and if the “discouraged
\njob-seekers” are included, then the number of additional persons not finding a niche in the
\nurban labour market would climb to 3.2 million. In the region, as in the rest of the world, there are signs that
\nthe crisis may have reached bottom in the middle of the year. In
\nmany countries, production levels have ceased their decline and
\nthere are indications of an incipient recovery leading to cautious
\noptimism that there may be a moderate upturn in labour markets
\nin the fourth quarter. The pace of recovery will vary from one
\ncountry to the next and is expected to be gradual at best.
\nEven with the return to a growth path, there should be
\nno illusion that the labour problems will immediately disappear.
\nFirst, the recovery in employment is expected to lag behind the
\nupturn in economic activity. Second, since economic growth is
\nlikely to remain moderate in the short term and well below the
\nrates recorded between late 2003 and mid-2008, demand for
\nlabour and consequently the generation of good-quality jobs
\nwill continue to be weak. Thus, countries should not relax their
\nefforts to defend and create decent jobs, but rather should take
\nsteps to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of available
\ninstruments. In this way, the region will be in a better position
\nnot only to confront the challenges of economic recovery, but
\nalso to strengthen the foundations for social inclusion and for
\nadvancing under more favourable conditions towards fulfilment
\nof the Millennium Development Goals.

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