Indonesia Economic Quarterly, July 2012 : Rising to Present and Future Challenges

The Indonesia economic quarterly reports
\n on and synthesizes the past three months' key
\n developments in Indonesia's economy. It places them in
\n a longer-term and global context, and assesses the
\n implications of these developments and other changes in
\n policy for the outlook for Indonesia's economic and
\n social welfare. The near-term global economic outlook is
\n fragile and emerging economies, including Indonesia, again
\n face the risk of a potential crisis that is not of their
\n making. The growth outlook for Indonesia's major
\n trading partners (MTP), at 3.3 percent in 2012, remains
\n relatively weak as increased Euro zone uncertainty adds to
\n the ongoing drags on global growth from budget cutting and
\n deleveraging in developed economies, and capacity
\n constraints in some developing economies. Recent
\n international financial market turbulence looks set to
\n continue in the near-term and, while this baseline scenario
\n remains the most likely outcome, capital flows to emerging
\n economies and sentiment are likely to remain volatile.
\n Further enhancing crisis preparedness is therefore a policy
\n priority for economies such as Indonesia but, at the same
\n time, it is important to push ahead with reforms and
\n investments which can support medium-term growth in what is
\n likely to be a weaker global economic environment.
\n Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth
\n remained a solid 6.3 percent year-on-year in the first
\n quarter of 2012, down slightly from an average of 6.5
\n percent in 2011. Seasonally-adjusted growth overall came
\n down off the highs of the final quarter of 2011 but
\n consumption growth held up well. However, investment growth
\n dipped and, reflecting the relative weakness of external
\n demand, net exports again were a drag on growth. Inflation,
\n although picking up somewhat, has remained relatively low
\n and price expectations came down with the reduced likelihood
\n of a subsidized fuel price increase in 2012, as oil prices
\n declined. In the event of a major freezing of international
\n financial markets which contributes to a drop in trading
\n partner growth. In a scenario in which such a crisis was
\n accompanied, or indeed precipitated, a severe, prolonged
\n global downturn encompassing the major emerging economies,
\n growth in Indonesia could drop to 3.8 percent, with the
\n impact of the slowdown felt more sharply in domestic
\n activity as commodity price falls reduce incomes and
\n investment. In the event of a severe crisis, it is possible
\n that domestic consumer and business sentiment drops sharply
\n which, combined with any potential stresses in the financial
\n sector, could result in further downside to the growth scenarios.

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