Indonesia Economic Quarterly, July 2012 : Rising to Present and Future Challenges
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The Indonesia economic quarterly reports \n on and synthesizes the past three months' key \n developments in Indonesia's economy. It places them in \n a longer-term and global context, and assesses the \n implications of these developments and other changes in \n policy for the outlook for Indonesia's economic and \n social welfare. The near-term global economic outlook is \n fragile and emerging economies, including Indonesia, again \n face the risk of a potential crisis that is not of their \n making. The growth outlook for Indonesia's major \n trading partners (MTP), at 3.3 percent in 2012, remains \n relatively weak as increased Euro zone uncertainty adds to \n the ongoing drags on global growth from budget cutting and \n deleveraging in developed economies, and capacity \n constraints in some developing economies. Recent \n international financial market turbulence looks set to \n continue in the near-term and, while this baseline scenario \n remains the most likely outcome, capital flows to emerging \n economies and sentiment are likely to remain volatile. \n Further enhancing crisis preparedness is therefore a policy \n priority for economies such as Indonesia but, at the same \n time, it is important to push ahead with reforms and \n investments which can support medium-term growth in what is \n likely to be a weaker global economic environment. \n Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth \n remained a solid 6.3 percent year-on-year in the first \n quarter of 2012, down slightly from an average of 6.5 \n percent in 2011. Seasonally-adjusted growth overall came \n down off the highs of the final quarter of 2011 but \n consumption growth held up well. However, investment growth \n dipped and, reflecting the relative weakness of external \n demand, net exports again were a drag on growth. Inflation, \n although picking up somewhat, has remained relatively low \n and price expectations came down with the reduced likelihood \n of a subsidized fuel price increase in 2012, as oil prices \n declined. In the event of a major freezing of international \n financial markets which contributes to a drop in trading \n partner growth. In a scenario in which such a crisis was \n accompanied, or indeed precipitated, a severe, prolonged \n global downturn encompassing the major emerging economies, \n growth in Indonesia could drop to 3.8 percent, with the \n impact of the slowdown felt more sharply in domestic \n activity as commodity price falls reduce incomes and \n investment. In the event of a severe crisis, it is possible \n that domestic consumer and business sentiment drops sharply \n which, combined with any potential stresses in the financial \n sector, could result in further downside to the growth scenarios.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,002 | 0,005 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,004 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,003 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,011 | 0,007 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,003 | 0,007 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,042 | 0,018 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».