Stochastic Simulation of Hourly Rainfall, Total Cloud Cover, and Solar Radiation in Canadian Stations
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The impact of climate change and global warming on human lives worldwide is profound. Among the consequences, heat waves stand out as particularly severe in urban areas. These events not only directly impact human well-being but also significantly influence energy consumption patterns in cities. As a result, scientists have directed their attention towards comprehensively studying the effects of heat waves on urban buildings and evaluating their vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. Nevertheless, conducting such studies necessitates reliable and uninterrupted access to a dataset encompassing various hydroclimatic processes at an hourly or sub-hourly resolution, spanning an extended period. Due to limitations in data availability, many researchers resort to employing diverse modeling approaches as a viable solution. \nWhile numerical and physically based models are computationally intensive and can introduce biases in their outcomes, the utilization of stochastic models presents a distinct alternative for generating synthetic long time series that exhibit similar characteristics to observed data. In this research, we have introduced three distinct univariate stochastic models specifically designed for simulating the hourly variations of cloud cover, solar radiation, and rainfall at various Canadian stations. The calibration of these models was carried out individually for 279 rainfall stations, 132 total cloud cover stations, and 564 solar radiation stations, which are geographically dispersed throughout Canada. In certain stations, we incorporated temperature data during winter to complement the missing data in the rainfall model. To address the modelling of total cloud cover, which is constrained between zero and one, we introduced a novel methodology that utilizes a mixed-type distribution encompassing two probability masses at zero and one. Furthermore, for modelling solar radiation, which exhibits nonstationary behaviour due to diurnal and yearly seasonal variations, we proposed a novel approach that allows employing Autoregressive (AR) models. The methods are based on the CoSMoS model that reproduces marginal distributions and correlations. All modifications are implemented in the R programming language by developing new code and modifying and extending code found in the CoSMoS package. The methods and the codes provided allow the user to simulate as many and as long time series for any of the three processes.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».