CAN IMMIGRATION COMPENSATE FOR BELOW-REPLACEMENT FERTILITY?: THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE UNBALANCED SETTLEMENT OF IMMIGRANTS IN CANADIAN CITIES, 2001-2051.
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
This is a study of the long-term consequences of the combination of sustained below-replacement fertility rates and the unbalanced distribution of immigrantswithinCanada. Fiftyyearpopulationprojectionsarecalculatedfor the 26 largest cities in Canada, assuming a continuation of current fertility, mortality and internal migration rates, under four scenarios: three of them vary immigration levels (high, medium and low) with a continuation of current settlement patterns, and a fourth scenario assumes a balanced distribution in which each city receives its proportional share of immigrants. The study finds that natural decrease will occur in the short term, and that migration will play a critical role in the future of Canadian cities. Without in-migration (either internal or international), cities will decline rapidly. Under current immigration levels, only 10 of the 26 cities are projected to grow through to 2051, and 12 will be smaller in 2051 than in 2001, to as low as less than half their current population. On the other hand, some cities with high levels of in-migration are projected to more than double in population size. There will be a growing division between cities thataregrowingandthosethataredeclining. Growingcitieswillhaveyounger age structures and more diverse populations than those in decline. Increasing immigration levels without a shift in the distribution of immigrants does little to help cities with little attraction for immigrants, but does increase the rate of growth for those that are already rapidly growing. Future age structures for each of the cities are also examined and it is found that there will be more people in the highest age groups in all cities, even those that are declining. The numbers of young people, though, will decline in many cities. Challenges associated with changing demographic conditions are discussed, including those that relate to the global ∞nte×t in which some regions of the world are projected to continue to grow rapidly while others are projected to decline.\nThis study challenges the implicit assumption in demographic transition theory that there is a natural balance between births and deaths in any\npopulation, and suggests that demographic transition theory be revised to include\na fourth phase, in which fertility rates remain below replacement levels resulting in natural decrease.
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,002 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».