Understanding the Gulf's new Syria policy: power, identity, or economy?
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The recent decision on the part of the Gulf states to provide political, logistical, financial, and military support to the Syrian opposition, represented politically by the Syrian National Coalition, represents a significant shift from its historical policy towards the regime in Damascus. Prior to 2009, the Gulf sates, led by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, were providing support to the Assad regime in the form of financial investment in order to promote a policy of Arab solidarity that was largely designed to prevent Syria from building close relations with Iran. However, months after the Arab Spring began, Syrian opposition began receiving military support from Riyadh and Doha. This thesis explores the reasons behind this shift by closely examining the decision-making and policy processes that led to the new policy vis-Ã -vis Syria on the part of the Gulf states. This study explores the factors behind this policy change through the lens of three prominent theories in international relations: neorealism, constructivism, and the political economy approach associated with World Systems Theory. To evaluate the utility of neorealist approaches in understanding the shift in the Gulf states' policy towards Damascus, this study examines the content and analyzes the relevance of a series of cables from Wikileaks, spanning from 2006 to the present. To study the pervasion of constructivist influence, religious sermons (khutbahs) of Gulf Imams in the period before and after the onset of conflict in Syria are examined. In order to shed light on the economic factors that may be associated with the new Gulf-Syria policy, this thesis examines the relationship between the volatility of international energy markets, rentier politics, and the competitions between regional actors over two pipeline projects designed to run through Syrian territory: one initiated by Iran and the other by its regional rivals, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. The study finds that the decision-making process associated with the Gulf's new Syria policy has been shaped by a combination of factors. These include the strategic and security concerns of Gulf states related to the rising influence of Iran in the region, the crucial role played by Sunni-Islam as a legitimating ideology, and the economic benefits that Saudi Arabia and Qatar would potentially receive with the emergence of a Gulf-friendly regime in Syria. In conclusion, any evaluation of this new Gulf-Syria policy through strictly dichotomous applications of neorealism, constructivism, and political economy provide an incomplete picture. Instead, this study shows that this shift was a result of a mix of motives and factors, and that key conceptual insights from all three theoretical approaches should be combined in a synthesis so as to more fully understand the Gulf's new Syria policy.
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,002 | 0,002 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,002 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,002 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,002 | 0,001 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».