Using Airborne Measurements to Evaluate Forecasts of Freezing Drizzle Aloft Results from the Wintre-Mix Field Campaign
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Icing associated with the accretion of supercooled large droplets (SLD) serves as a significant hazard to aviation activities. Forecasting SLD events is complex due in part to the limitations of numerical weather prediction models. The Winter Precipitation Type Research Multiscale Experiment (WINTRE-MIX) aimed to comprehend such limitations within numerical forecasts of precipitation type (p-type) through the use of extensive observations during events with multiple p-types. To investigate precipitation processes aloft in winter storms with near-freezing surface conditions, research flights were orchestrated with the National Research Council of Canada Convair-580 aircraft. This study examines a WINTRE-MIX intensive observing period that took place on 07–08 March 2022 and coincided with a warm frontal passage through northern New York and into southern Quebec. As the Convair ascended in altitude, widespread freezing drizzle (FZDZ) connected with SLD icing was observed with abnormally cool cloud-top temperatures as low as -15°C. This study evaluates the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model forecasts of FZDZ against Convair-580 observations. The HRRR is favored within the aviation meteorology community for its 3-km grid spacing, its frequent hourly data assimilation, and its use of complex microphysics schemes with the ability to diagnose multiple hydrometeor categories. Icing conditions are examined using in-situ aircraft observations by analyzing ice detector frequency, liquid water content, cloud number concentration, and rain number concentration, and diagnosed hydrometeor types which are compared to their model-simulated equivalent. Additionally, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations explore sources of inconsistencies between observations and model runs. Airborne W-band radar profiles collected by the Convair-580 are compared to simulated radar reflectivity. HRRR and control (CTRL) WRF predominately simulate snow and ice hydrometeors at flight level which contrasts observations of FZDZ and SLD icing. The presence of snow hydrometeors throughout the vertical column suggests that seeding from the upper-level cloud inhibits collision-coalescence. Frozen hydrometeors will serve as ice nuclei or lead to the evaporation of liquid through the Bergeron-Wegener-Findeisen process. This leads to the removal of available liquid in the atmosphere. Two sensitivity experiments are performed by removing moisture above an average altitude of 5092 m and between average altitudes of 4076 m and 5836 m to explore the influence of seeding from the upper-layer cloud. The reduction of snow mixing ratios and improvements to rain mixing ratios at locations of observed icing demonstrate the biases introduced by the seeding mechanisms.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».