East Asia Update, October 2003 : From Cyclical Recovery to Long Run Growth
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The region had already begun a cyclical \n recovery in 2002, but this was partially side-tracked by \n SARS - Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome - and other shocks \n in early 2003. East Asian growth fell to only 3 percent in \n the second quarter of 2003. On balance, though, the impact \n of SARS was less than first feared, and growth projections \n for 2003 remain unchanged, compared with six months ago. Far \n from too little growth, China is in the midst of a powerful \n boom that has policy makers looking for ways to cool the \n pace of expansion in some sectors. On the other hand, export \n growth in most East Asian countries, slowed in the summer, \n and in some has yet to revive. These conflicting signals \n obscure somehow the near term outlook, but, on balance, \n prospects for East Asia are getting brighter. If the \n momentum of reform can be maintained, the region should be \n well placed to convert cyclical recovery into more \n sustained, long run growth. There are four sets of reasons \n for optimism: the global economy is improving, continued \n strong growth in China is propelling a vast expansion in its \n imports from the rest of East Asia, post-financial crisis \n " fire-fighting " seems to be behind, with \n domestic conditions in the region improving, and, the region \n is becoming more comfortable with representative forms of \n governance. However, two dangers deserve special attention: \n international trade is the life blood of East Asia, but the \n setback at the Cancun trade talks, might allow protectionist \n interests to go on the offensive, causing long term damage \n to the world trading system; and, within East Asia progress \n on institutional, and governance reforms has been slow, \n evidently hurting its competitive position in the world. \n Several priority policies are suggested, namely prudent \n macroeconomics, continued emphasis on strengthening \n financial sector supervision and regulation, corporate \n governance, and the supporting legal and judicial framework \n for the financial, and corporate sectors, as well as \n fostering the development of more diversified capital \n markets, to better handle different kinds of risks. The \n report also looks at the prospects for economic growth in \n the region, its poverty incidence, and at a more supportive \n international environment, pointing at improved confidence, \n demand, and activity, underpinned by supportive monetary, \n and fiscal policies adopted by many countries. Domestic \n trends and policy challenges convey gradual improvements in \n the financial sector, more active capital market \n development, improved corporate governance, and political \n transitions in several countries in the region.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,002 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,003 | 0,002 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,013 | 0,002 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; les deux têtes enseignantes s’accordent sur ce qui est montré ici.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».