AN INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK FOR ROBUST DECISION-MAKING IN A TRANSBOUNDARY RIVER BASIN: AN INTER-REGIONAL HYDRO-ECONOMIC APPROACH
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Allocating limited amounts of freshwater among competing uses is challenging, particularly in transboundary river basins and under the impact of climate change and increasing demand for water associated with population growth and economic development. This calls for decision support tools that inform decision-makers about the consequences of their water management strategies and the impacts of changes in water availability due to climate change and socio-economic development. Hydro-economic models have proven to be promising for helping understand these impacts from an economic perspective. These models need to be integrated and capture both features of the water system and the economic interdependencies to be effective in multi-sectoral and multi-regional river basin contexts. Many of the hydro-economic models, however, adhere to either hydrological or administrative boundaries due to the limited availability of hydrological and economic data at relevant temporal and spatial scales. These models usually consist of a detailed representation of either the water or the economic system and a simplified representation of the other system. This is mainly because an integrated model including a detailed representation of both water and economic systems is extremely data-demanding and challenging to develop due to the different resolutions of datasets associated with these models. This dissertation attempts to address this gap by developing an integrated hydro-economic model that encompasses an entire transboundary river basin and consists of detailed water and economic components to inform decision-making about sustainable and robust water allocation. This is accomplished through these main steps: (1) developing an Inter-regional Supply-side Input-Output (ISIO) model incorporating water supply data for the transboundary Saskatchewan River Basin; (2) testing the temporal transferability of the ISIO model for different years in predicting the economic response of the river basin to changes in water availability under different climatic conditions; (3) coupling the ISIO model with a node-link water resources system model (MODSIM) to create an integrated hydro-economic model; (4) applying this integrated hydro-economic model to identify the sectoral and regional vulnerabilities of the river basin to changes in water supply; and (5) comparing the economic outcomes of the integrated hydro-economic model with those coming from an engineering model (the MODSIM model linked to a crop yield function) and the ISIO model. The contribution of this dissertation is developing an integrated hydro-economic model that couples detailed water resources system and inter-regional supply-side input-output models to identify sectoral and regional vulnerabilities of transboundary river basins to changes in water availability. The findings of this research have advanced our understanding of the cross-sectoral and inter-regional distribution of economic impacts of water allocation strategies and other drivers, including climate change and socio-economic development. This research also investigates, for the first time, the performance of supply-side input-output models that include water under different climatic conditions and over several years. This dissertation serves as an example for future integrated hydro-economic modelling attempts, particularly for informing decision-making about sustainable and robust water allocation in multi-sectoral and multi-regional river basins.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,003 | 0,003 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,002 | 0,002 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Communication savante | 0,005 | 0,003 |
| Science ouverte | 0,004 | 0,004 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,003 | 0,003 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,005 | 0,001 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».