Assessment of entomological risk for Lyme borreliosis along a north-to-south gradient from southern Virginia into North Carolina
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Lyme disease (LD) has become the most prevalent vector-borne disease in the United States and the sixth Nationally Notifiable disease. Surveillance of Lyme disease from the 1992-2016 has shown a sustained documented expansion of LD moving south into the border of Virginia and North Carolina, west into West Virginia, Tennessee, northwest into North Dakota, and North into Canada. This expansion of LD seems to be associated with expansion of the disease vector Ixodes scapularis, with newly established populations in the southwestern Appalachian and Piedmont regions of Virginia. The goal of the study was to characterize the entomological risk of the spread of LD from VA into NC. To determine the distribution and infection prevalence of I. scapularis along a northeastern-to-southwestern gradient from VA to NC, tick-flagging and hunter-harvested deer tick collecting approaches were used with samples tested by the CDC for infection. Flagging was comprised of periodic sampling sessions from October 2015 to July 2017, conducted at Fairy Stone, Mayo River, Hanging Rock, Pilot Mountain, Yadkin Island Park, and Lake Norman State Parks. Hunted deer processing stations Hilltop Farms (Walnut Cove, NC) and Game Butchers (Troutman, NC), were used for collecting ticks from hunter-harvested deer covering counties for the northern, central and southern North Carolina Piedmont regions. Ticks collected by flagging were suggestive of a north-to-south trend with no significant difference among the northernmost State Parks and a significant difference in abundance between the northern and southernmost State Parks. The highest number of I. scapularis ticks (0.7 per 100m) was collected from the north-most Virginia’s Fairy Stone and Hanging Rock State Parks, but no I. scapularis were collected from the southernmost Lake Norman location. Infection prevalence of ticks collected by flagging exhibited a general north-to-south declining trend. Though not statistically significant with highest infection rate approximately 25% at the north-most Fairy Stone State Park. For deer collected ticks, there was a significant north-to-south decrease in tick burden per deer, with the northern region located on the VA-NC border having the highest number of I. scapularis (6.0 per deer), followed by the central and the southern regions of NC. Infection prevalence of sampled ticks from deer are suggestive of a declining trend although not significant, with the northern region having the highest (17%), followed by the central region (11%), and no infection present in the southern region. Ixodes scapularis results collected from flagging, and hunter-harvested deer are highly suggestive of a north-to-south gradient in I. scapularis densities with Alexander and Iredell being the south-most I. scapularis positive counties. Borrelia burgdorferi infection results also suggest a north-to-south distribution, with B. burgdorferi appearing to have only made it as far south as the central counties of Yadkin and Forsyth. Entomological risk estimates for density of infected nymphs (DIN) and adults (DIA) of flagging and hunted deer also showed a north-to-south trend with Fairy Stone State Park having the highest (0.033) DIN and northern NC region having the highest (0.808) DIA. The results are consistent with first the spread of the vector followed by the pathogen.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».