The Relationship between the Resource Curse and Genuine Savings as an Indicator for Weak Sustainability : Theoretical Background and Empirical Evidence
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
This dissertation deals with the relationship between the Resource Curse (RC) – the empirically proven paradox that countries with abundant natural resources often show slower economic growth – and a measure for the substitution of natural resource depletion by other forms of capital, the World Bank’s Genuine Savings (GS). In four logically successive parts, which are all published papers, this work analyzes the “alarming picture [that most] [c]ountries with a large percentage of mineral and energy rents of GNI typically have lower genuine saving rates” (VAN DER PLOEG 2011: 396-397) as well as its background determinants and transmission channels.<br /> The first part establishes a critical survey on GS and its calculation components and is intended as an introduction to its theoretical and methodical background. The WORLD BANK (2011) adjusts Net National Savings for human and natural capital, but as an indicator of real world sustainability GS has several shortcomings, which are discussed at length. For example, there are natural resources that are omitted due to empirical and methodological reasons such as fisheries, biodiversity or diamonds. Part one discusses possible extensions and ideas for future development, but the most important finding is the necessity for more analyses of possible factors determining the development of GS rates.<br /> With this background, part two establishes a theoretical model of the relationship between the RC and GS. Since both the RC and GS depend on the amount of resource depletion and exports, a possible relation seems clear. Therefore, part two uses the exogenous and endogenous explanations from countless studies contributing to the research on the RC and its determinants and relates them to GS and its calculation components. For example, the volatility of international commodity markets affects the natural resource rents within the calculation of GS immensely, or the migration of employees to the resource sector has a clear impact on the education expenditures used to determine human capital.<br /> In part three, these findings and the resulting theoretical model are used to show the empirical relationships between the RC and GS in cross-country regressions. For example, the mentioned terms-of-trade volatility in resource-dependent countries affects the calculation of GS on multiple levels. Overall, results show that factors leading to the RC are also useful explanatory variables for GS. Hence, part three of this dissertation shows that the theoretical framework from part two holds true in comprehensive cross-country regressions with a variety of dependent and independent variables.<br /> To complete the analysis, part four examines Zambia as a case study of a RC-affected country. Between 1964 and 2012 Zambia depended on copper exports at an average 33% of its GNI and suffered a decline of its real per capita income in the same period, and importantly showed an average GS rate of -3%. The study demonstrates that most of the theories relating the RC to GS apply to the Zambian situation. Its GS developed with high volatility and completely in line with world copper prices and to a lesser but not negligible extent with political developments. Following parts two and three, this case study completes the picture on the deep relationship between the RC and GS and closes the loop of a theoretical model with cross-sectional empirical research as well as a research design which allows for a more qualitative discussion.
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».