Efficacy of COVID-19 Macro-economic Policy Responses in Uganda
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
COVID-19 has caused an unprecedented economic and health shock in Uganda, as has been the \ncase globally. After the World Health Organization announcement that COVID-19 was a global \npandemic, the government of Uganda undertook decisive measures to abate the spread of the \nvirus through adopting COVID-19 containment measures. Also, in anticipation of the distortionary \neffects of COVID-19 on Uganda’s economy through the external and domestic effects channels, \nthe government adopted an expansionary fiscal and monetary policy alongside financial sector \ninterventions. Fiscal policy interventions involved the following: tax relief measures; government \nOur Donor \nThis project is supported by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC). \nThe IDRC is a Canadian federal Crown corporation. It is part of Canada’s foreign \naffairs and development efforts and invests in knowledge, innovation, and solutions \nto improve the lives of people in the developing world. \n3 Efficacy of COVID-19 Macroeconomic Policy Responses in Uganda \nexpenditure through extending seed capital to vulnerable groups; strengthening health \nsystems; enhancing the supply of agriculture inputs through the use of e-vouchers; banning the \ndisconnection of users from utilities such as water and electricity; and payment of domestic \narrears, among others. Monetary policy interventions included reducing the central bank rate \n(CBR) to 7%, its lowest level since inception in 2011. Financial sector intervention involved credit \nrelief, asset quality support and liquidity support measures alongside supporting a reduction in \nmobile money charges. As such, this paper explores the macroeconomic impact of COVID-19 on \nUganda’s economy, the macroeconomic policy choices undertaken and, finally, inclusiveness and \nviability of the various macroeconomic policy choices undertaken. The study used high frequency \nmacroeconomic data to tease out the impact of COVID-19 on Uganda’s economy. Furthermore, \nthrough exploring the policy choices adopted, we also assess policy choice viability and extent \nof inclusiveness. The aforementioned policy interventions mitigated the extent of COVID-19 \ndistortions on Uganda’s economy. Indeed, although economic growth was slow at 2.9% in the \nfinancial year (FY) 2019/20, with especially the service and industrial sectors paying the highest \nprice, the supportive environment ensured that the industrial sector picked up quickly in the first \nquarter (Q1) of FY2020/21. The roll-out of public works in urban and peri-urban areas was aimed \nat hedging livelihoods against the impact of COVID-19 on households as a result of dampened \nproduction in the industrial and service sectors. While inflation remained subdued, the reduction \nin aggregate demand and trade disruptions suppressed inflationary pressure on food thereby \nundermining rural incomes and thus perpetuating rural poverty. Even then, the introduction of \nthe Emyooga fund1 \n and the rolling out of the e-voucher system to 10 additional districts in an \neffort to enhance the distribution of agricultural inputs are attempts to strengthen livelihoods in \nthe rural areas in the midst of COVID-19 headwinds. Interest rates were relatively low on account \nof expansionary monetary policy and confidence in Uganda’s financial sector. This was largely \non account of the Bank of Uganda’s interventions in the financial sector, which ensured a stable \nfinancial sector albeit with reduced profitability. The external sector was characterised by reduced \nforeign direct investment, tourism receipts and remittances. Overall, the policy interventions \nwere inclusive as fiscal policy was both sensitive to the formal and informal sectors (except \nfor households in urban, peri-urban and rural settings). Also, monetary and financial sector \ninterventions were sensitive to commercial banks, credit institutions and microfinance deposittaking institutions implying sensitivity to formal and informal businesses irrespective of size \nand location.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,019 | 0,034 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,002 | 0,003 |
| Communication savante | 0,005 | 0,002 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,008 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,003 | 0,003 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,007 | 0,001 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».