Evaluación de una planta de licuefacción de gas natural en el Perú para exportación
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Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The first option for the use of natural gas in Peru is its internal market and / or added value through the development of the petrochemical industry, thus motivating the exploration and exploitation of gas fields in the country, bringing the own investments of capital, generation of jobs, creation of new infrastructure and income through royalties; However, several projects related to the possible development of petrochemicals and internal distribution have not been consolidated to use Camisea gas, since an intermediate infrastructure is required for the transportation and supply of natural gas, therefore, with the purpose of Maintain revenues in the country, this research study the feasibility of exporting gas using gas reserves not committed to the massification of natural gas at the country level, which, during the period 2010 - 2017 Natural gas exported accounted for 46.55% of the Total gas royalties in favor of Peru. \nIn 2016, the trade in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) represented about 32% of the global demand for Natural Gas, where this last represented approximately a quarter of the global energy demand, since, developing and developed countries require more and more energy at lower cost and with less environmental impact in the execution of their activities. Likewise, LNG is an alternative to traditional gas pipelines, which has brought with it the expansion of the Natural Gas market. \nThe demand for LNG has been increasing in the last 20 years, reaching 258 MTPA (million tons per year) in 2016, representing an increase of 5.4% compared to 2015 in which 244.8 MTPA were imported. In turn, LNG trade is changing to meet the needs of buyers, including short-term and lower-volume contracts with greater degrees of flexibility. \nTherefore, this thesis analyzes the technical-economic viability for the implementation of a Natural Gas Liquefaction Plant for export. A project of this magnitude would provide Peru with capital investment, the creation of jobs, the creation of infrastructure, the generation of income through royalties and taxes, and a positive balance of foreign exchange from the export of energy. \n \nThe study is based on the fact that with the increase in proven reserves of natural gas at the end of 2016 and the declaration of commercialization of Lot 58, which has 2.19 TCF of proven natural gas reserves, the supply of raw material for the execution of this Research Project will be guaranteed. \nThe sizing of the Liquefaction Plant was determined when projecting the national production of natural gas, thus obtaining a processing capacity of 225 MMSCFD, equivalent to a production of 1.6 MTPA of LNG. It has also been necessary to implement a gas pipeline for own use for the supply of raw materials, as well as the construction of a maritime terminal to load liquefied gas in tanker ships. \nThe location of the Research Project has been based on certain location criteria, considering the capacity of the tankers and the route of the Camisea - Lurín gas pipeline, currently concessioned by TGP. \nWith the aforementioned, a total investment of 645 MMUSD has been estimated for the execution of the Research Project. \nThe study of objective markets for the sale of LNG produced has also been developed, with Asia being the main market, due to the increase in imports, recovery of the LNG JKM indicator and the change in its energy matrix, that is now dominated by nuclear energy and coal. \nFinally, the SPOT price of natural gas at the end of 2017, under the LNG JKM marker, is approximately 10.57 $ / MMBTU, with this, the profitability of the Research Project was evaluated through the Internal Rate of Return (IRR), the Net Present Value (NPV) and the period of investment recovery (PAY BACK), these being 19.64%, 295 MMUSD and 7 years respectively; In addition, the state will have an annual income of 84 MMUSD for the concept of royalties due to the export of natural gas.
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Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,002 | 0,002 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
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