Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The strong wind and hailstorms that hit Bara and Parsa districts on 31 March 2019 killed 30, injured more than 1150 people and made more than 2890 families homeless. A mosque, schools, industries, agricultural lands, businesses were damaged along with utility services including water supply and electricity. The impact of the severe storm in the non-residential areas is still unknown. Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) with the support from the Small Earth Nepal (SEN) carried out a scientific study and declared that most of the damages were due to the tornado formed within the storm system in their joint press release on 5 April 2019 based on the preliminary assessment. This was the first ever officially recorded tornado in Nepal. To investigate the field situation, a team of seven researchers and experts from DHM, SEN and International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) visited the affected areas to gather in-situ information on the impacts of the Bara-Parsa tornado. The evidences gathered during the field study led the researchers to reconfirm that it was a tornado. The findings from the desk and field studies on this tornado event were shared to general public and stakeholders through various means, including press releases and news media, meetings and workshops by DHM, SEN, and other organizations in several separate occasions. DHM formed an eight-member committee from DHM, SEN and ICIMOD under chairmanship of the Director General of DHM to prepare this report. The committee in consultation with other experts in meteorology also coined “घुम्रपात” (Ghumrapaat) as a Nepali name for tornado. This report presents the findings of the studies from the four sources: meteorological analysis, social and news media, satellite images, and field studies. This is also the first of its kind of endeavor in Nepal to identify tornadic event by evidences gathered from combination of these sources. Interviews with tornado affected people, eyewitnesses, photographs and videos, aerial photos from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flights were collected during the field visit. Geographical information system (GIS), statistical analysis and data analysis software were used to analyze signatures of the tornado. Meteorological analysis included synoptic analysis of surface and upper air weather charts, infrared images of Himawari-8 satellite, lightning data, station pressure and wind observations, and radiosonde point observation data. Based on the destructions, the strength of Bara-Parsa tornado was estimated to be of EF3 category (Enhanced Fujita scale number 3 category) with the wind speed between 180 to 265 km/h. The tornado travel speed was estimated to be about 34 km/h considering its stretch in Bara-Parsa districts, from Sakhuwa-Parsauni, Parsa to Bairiya, Bara. Based on the satellite images, the length of tornado track in Bara-Parsa districts was estimated to be 44 km and the width ranged between 200 to 750 m. The tornado also affected forest area inside Chitwan National Park, but the details on the impact inside the park was not investigated for this report. However, based on the satellite images, the path of the tornado inside the park was estimated to be 9 km. To save lives from such severe weather events in future the report recommends establishing a severe weather warning system (nowcasting) along with resources and tools needed. To better understand the Bara-Parsa tornado event in entirety, the immediate focus should be on the investigation of its impact in Chitwan National Park. This report only presents preliminary analysis of this tornado; therefore, it is necessary to conduct further scientific research along with modeling of the Bara-Parsa tornado and other severe weather events in Nepal.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,004 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,003 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,003 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,002 | 0,003 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,046 | 0,009 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».