Predictive modelling of hydrogen production from agricultural and forestry residues through a thermo-catalytic reforming process

Hydrogen produced from renewable sources is crucial for decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors and achieving net-zero targets. This study examines hydrogen production through the novel thermo-catalytic reforming (TCR) process using agricultural and forestry residues. The research aims to develop and optimize regression models that integrate feedstock properties (ash, hydrogen-to-carbon molar ratio, and lignin) and process parameters (reactor and reformer temperatures) to predict yields of hydrogen (H 2 ), syngas, methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). Three biomass feedstocks – softwood pellets (SWPs), hardwood pellets (HWPs), and wheat straw pellets (WSPs) – were analyzed at reactor temperatures of 400–550 °C and reformer temperatures of 500–700 °C. Predictive models for H 2 (R 2 = 0.9642, RMSE = 1.0639) and syngas (R 2 = 0.9894, RMSE = 0.0140) yields show strong agreement and accuracy between the predicted and experimental values. In contrast, the models for CH 4 and CO 2 yields show higher variability in the predictions. Reformer temperature was the most significant parameter influencing the yields of H 2 and syngas. The optimal H 2 yields predicted for the model were obtained for HWPs at 550/700 °C (26.67 g H 2 /kg dry biomass), followed by SWPs at 550/700 °C (24.11 g H 2 /kg dry biomass) and WSPs at 550/685.2 °C (18.78 g H 2 /kg dry biomass). The volumetric syngas yields were highest for HWPs at 550/700 °C (0.831 Nm 3 /kg dry biomass), followed by SWPs (0.777 Nm 3 /kg dry biomass) and WSPs (0.634 Nm 3 /kg dry biomass). This study demonstrates that regression modelling accurately predicts H 2 and syngas yields, which would help to expand the applicability of TCR technology for large-scale hydrogen production, contributing to the decarbonization of the energy sector. • Study explores production of H 2 -rich syngas via thermo-catalytic reforming (TCR). • Reformer temperature has a higher impact on hydrogen and syngas yields in the TCR. • Predicted H 2 yield was maximum (26.67 g H 2 /kg) at 550/700 °C for hardwood pellets. • Predicted V syngas yield reached maximum (0.831 Nm 3 /kg) at 550/700 °C for HWPs. • Model predictions have good agreement with experimental H 2 and V syngas yields.

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