Developing Species Distribution Models to Predict Pea Aphid Habitat Suitability and Migration under Climate Change, an Insect Vector of Pea Seed-Borne Mosaic Virus
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Pea aphids (Acyrthosiphom pisum) (Hemiptera: Aphididae) are a global pest that cause significant yield loss in several pulse crops, including field pea (Lathyrus oleraceus L.), lentil (Lens culinaris Medik), and faba bean (Vicia faba L.). A global Species Distribution Model (SDM) was created to determine the areas of the world where the habitat suitability for pea aphids is the highest, with three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) climate change scenarios being incorporated into the model. Areas that were found to have high habitat suitability for pea aphids included the USA, Canadian prairies, across several countries within the Europe, China, and areas of Australia. SSP 126 was shown to be the most favourable climate scenario for pea aphids, as they were able to significantly expand their current land range and have the least amount of land range contraction. Given the threats that climate change poses, it is unknown how pea aphid life history traits, such as the number of offspring produced and days to reproductive maturity will respond to increasing temperatures. To address this knowledge gap, growth chamber experiments with six temperature conditions were conducted. A temperature of 21°C was the most favorable temperature for pea aphids, as they produced the highest number of offspring within 10 days and possessed the most consistent days to reproductive maturity. Severe consequences on pea aphid life history traits were encountered at 35°C, which resulted in a near 100% mortality rate. Next, a new “mechanistic” and “correlative” SDM was created focusing solely on North America, with the mechanistic SDM incorporating the temperature limitations informed by the pea aphid life history experiments. In these models, we implemented two SSP climate scenarios: SSP 126 and SSP 370. The results of the mechanistic SDM captured the effects of rising temperatures on pea aphid habitat suitability, highlighting the value of incorporating physiological parameters into SDMs to improve statistical predictions or using tools like CLIMEX that can account for temperature thresholds when evaluating species distributions. This project also investigated if a virus transmitted by pea aphids would be influenced by the changes in temperature conditions as a result of climate change. Specifically, Pea Seed-borne Mosaic Virus (PSbMV) was mechanically inoculated into pea plants grown in 28°C and 35°C. Samples were taken at three growth stages during the plant’s lifecycle: V1 (first node), R2 (flowering), and R4 (podding). The results demonstrated that PSbMV develops more efficiently at 35°C, as indicated by all three plant stages having higher viral titers. Further, the life history traits for pea aphids infected with PSbMV were compared with non-infected PSbMV pea aphids in 28°C, and there were no statistically significant differences between PSbMV-infected and non-infected pea aphids. Additionally, the increase in PSbMV viral titer at higher temperatures suggests that climate change could increase the severity of plant-virus interactions.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».