Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The crisis in the housing and financial sectors has led to a dramatic slowdown in U.S. economic growth. Fourth quarter GDP growth and job growth are expected to be anemic and the economy may fall into recession in 2008. Indeed, several of the dozen members of the Nebraska Business Forecast Council do believe that the U.S. economy will likely slip into recession during 2008. However, the overall consensus of the Council is that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession. Economic growth will be slow in the first three quarters of 2008 before recovering in late 2008 and 2009. The reasons for concern about the economy are well understood. There has been a decline in both new home construction and the sales of existing homes. Housing permits and starts are each down by approximately 25% in 2007. This decline has had a ripple effect not only in construction but in related industries such as real estate, and segments of manufacturing and finance. Rising mortgage delinquencies, particularly for sub-prime mortgages have lead to stress at many financial institutions. This has led some financial institutions to cut back on lending. Recent evidence suggests that weakness in selected industries and these concerns about credit may have slowed consumer spending and lead to a decline in manufacturing activity. Rising oil and gasoline prices also have limited consumer income available to spend on other goods and services. The combined force of all of these factors is what has caused economic growth to slow and raised legitimate concerns that the economy could fall into recession. However, there is also a case to be made for continued economic growth in 2008. First the housing crisis, while significant, is limited to only a portion of the economy. This may explain why total employment has continued to grow through the end of 2007, at least according to preliminary estimates. Secondly, a weak U.S. dollar has lead to a substantial improvement in exports, and an overall improvement in the nation’s trade deficit, which supports growth. The third and final reason is the Federal Reserve Bank has shown a willingness to cut interest rates, or take other actions to improve liquidity. Not everyone has been satisfied with the pace of the Fed’s actions but the institution stands willing to make further cuts in short-term interest rates in 2008. Nationwide in 2007, non-farm job growth is thought to have expanded by 1.2 percent. Job growth is expected to slow to 0.9 percent in 2008 before bouncing back to 1.7 percent growth in 2009 as the economic growth accelerates again. Growth in real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have been 2.5 percent in 2007. The rate of growth will dip in the first half of 2008. Overall real GDP growth is expected to be 2.2 percent in 2008. Growth in real gross domestic product will improve in 2009 as the economy recovers, to 3.1 percent. As noted earlier, there is a significant chance, approaching 40 percent that the economy will fall into recession in 2008. If this occurs, job growth is expected to be negative during 2008. This is not the Council’s expectation but it is a possibility.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,004 | 0,014 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,005 | 0,010 |
| Communication savante | 0,008 | 0,007 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,008 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,004 | 0,008 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,034 | 0,006 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».