Calibration, validation and advanced applications of ocean drift models, forced with ocean satellite data, using marine debris reports from natural disasters
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Ocean surface circulation is important for many natural processes and for human activity, yet, surface currents are not measured accurately by the present observing system and not described well by the models. Complex hydrodynamics of interaction with high-frequency ocean motions and wind, flowing over a rough sea surface, make simulations of drift of floating objects even more difficult. As a consequence, model particle trajectories based on surface currents from ocean circulation models often deviate greatly from paths of real debris items. While perfect solution is hardly feasible, relatively simple practical methods can help to improve quality of the models. Many types of motions (such as Stokes drift, including breaking wind waves, down-wind slip, subsurface velocity shear, etc.) are mostly associated with effects of local wind and, therefore, can be parameterized using data of marine debris. Unfortunately, trajectories of debris are commonly unknown and data are sparse and opportunistic. In this study, we develop methods to calibrate a suite of oceanographic models using random at-sea and on-shore reports from the 2011 tsunami in Japan. Improved models reproduce main peaks in debris arrivals in North America and Hawaii and allow to estimate initial numbers for particular types of debris. For example, we found that tsunami likely washed into the ocean approximately 1000 boats and nearly a half of them are still floating. Optimal windage values for the same debris vary significantly between different models. A new technique is also developed to estimate probable trajectories of individual debris items. It helps to understand composition and survivability of alien species colonizing marine debris and to estimate associated risks for the ecosystem. Improved models are used to simulate drift of debris from general sources and from accidents and help to understand global balances and distributions. Future improvements require altimetry and scatterometry satellite missions with better space-time resolution as well as new technologies for more direct sensing of surface velocities and for measuring locations of larger floating debris and concentrations of smaller items. Figure. Simulation of marine debris drift from the 2011 tsunami in Japan with the IPRC Drift Model, colors indicating different windages. Inserts: (left) boat sucked out to sea in the tsunami and found north of Hawaii; (right) timelines of “tsunami” boat arrivals on the US/Canada West coast from reports (gray bars and magenta line) and (other colors) drift models.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».