Techno-Economic Analysis of Ground-Source and Dual-Source Heat Pumps for Canadian Climates
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Ground-source heat pumps (GSHPs) are a cornerstone technology for decarbonizing building heating and cooling. However, two key challenges limit their broader adoption: uncertainty in long-term performance under evolving subsurface temperature conditions and high initial capital costs driven by extensive borehole drilling requirements. This mixed-format thesis comprises two complementary studies, each targeting one of these challenges. The first study develops a semi-analytical dynamic GSHP model that integrates three core components: a detailed vapor-compression cycle resolving heating/cooling capacity and coefficient of performance (COP) variations with heat pump entering liquid temperature (ELT) from the ground. Validation is carried out against heat pump manufacturer data, published numerical simulation results, and OpenModelica simulations. Using this framework, the influence of both internally and externally induced ground temperature variations on ground-source heat pump heating and cooling capacities, and its COP over multi-year operation is quantified. A case study for a heating-dominated building load reveal that while cooling capacity changes only ~0.5% per one temperature degree (°C) increase in ground temperature, heating capacity declines by ~3% per one temperature degree (°C) decrease. To understand the significance of such capacity declines in the ground-source heat pump as a result of ground temperature variations, it is shown that a ground temperature reduction of 2 °C or more results in unmet peak heating loads requiring auxiliary systems. Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis combined with partial Spearman rank correlation sensitivity analysis identifies soil and grout conductivities as dominant parameters, while ground heat exchanger (GHE) running fluid properties exert weaker effects. These findings demonstrate the necessity of incorporating realistic subsurface dynamics for reliable long-term GSHP design and operation. The second study investigates dual-source heat pumps (DSHPs), which switch between air and ground operation based on outdoor temperature setpoints, as a strategy for reducing borehole length and GSHP capital and life-cycle costs in cold climates. A dynamic DSHP model is developed in OpenModelica. This configuration accurately resolves short-term borehole transients during frequent switching between air and ground sources. Techno-economic analyses of DSHPs are performed for Edmonton, Toronto, and Montréal, considering both small-scale and large-scale systems. Results show that DSHPs can reduce borehole design length by up to approximately 40% and lower capital cost by approximately 24%, while still achieving positive net present value (NPV) life-cycle cost savings up to approximately 15% despite reduced COP in air-source mode of the heat pump operation. A Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis confirms the robustness of the economic advantage, with partial Spearman sensitivity analysis revealing borehole cost, heat pump cost, and interest rate as the dominant financial drivers, with inflation having the least impact. Together, these studies provide a validated, computationally efficient medium- to long-term dynamic GSHP modeling framework that captures capacity and COP sensitivities to subsurface temperature drift, as well as a techno-economic assessment of DSHP systems demonstrating that strategic air–ground switching can significantly reduce borehole length and life-cycle costs of GSHP systems in cold climates. This thesis advances GSHP/DSHP performance prediction via a techno-economic assessment in Canadian cold climates, and establishes a generalizable foundation for accelerating GSHP deployment.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».