CHARACTERIZING EARTHQUAKE RISK IN CANADA: A MODEL 18 YEARS IN THE MAKING
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Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The Geological Survey of Canada recently published a national seismic risk assessment, quantifying the risk from earthquakes at the neighborhood level across Canada. This includes both probabilistic results and a scenario (deterministic) catalogue. Achieving this involved creation of national exposure and fragility models, and slight modifications to the sixth-generation national seismic hazard model for Canada. This article will highlight the years-long process that made this possible, outline the methodology at a high level, and portray selected results. Probabilistic results include average annual losses and national loss exceedance curves, considering economic and life-loss risks. We find that national 500-year economic losses may be greater than the capacity of the insurance sector to absorb financial consequences, based on recent reporting from within that industry. We also present results of a Seismic Risk Index, a measure which factors in both physical and social dimensions of seismic risk and helps identify communities most at risk from earthquakes in Canada, both in absolute and normalized terms. We find that major urban centers in southwestern British Columbia, and along the St. Lawrence Lowlands are at the highest risk from earthquakes when considering absolute losses, while small and often remote communities in western Canada are at the highest risk when considering normalized losses. In addition to probabilistic results, we present results from our deterministic scenario catalogue, including additional metrics such as the number of casualties at different levels of severity and disruption to housing. The catalogue of earthquake scenarios is intended to grow, per a new systemic approach to scenario generation. Finally, we outline efforts to communicate this risk to decision makers. This includes a custom website, RiskProfiler.ca, which was designed to allow stakeholders to visualize and explore the results of the national seismic risk assessment in a user-friendly way. It includes maps and charts, allowing users to consider the impact of retrofit measures on some or all building types. We anticipate that this site will be of use to those in the planning, insurance, and emergency management sectors, and of interest to those engaged in seismic retrofit and earthquake engineering in Canada. It may also interest those from other countries who are developing similar platforms for risk reduction.
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle