Polling misses: causes and treatment

This thesis explores the recurring phenomenon of polling inaccuracies, or "polling misses," in election forecasting, examining the systemic, methodological, and behavioral factors contributing to these failures. It begins by establishing the historical context and evolution of election polling, highlighting its critical role in modern democratic processes, media narratives, and campaign strategies. Despite significant advancements in survey technology—from telephone-based to digital and multi-mode platforms—recent elections such as the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the Brexit referendum, and the 2018 Quebec provincial vote have demonstrated notable inaccuracies that challenge the reliability and legitimacy of polls. Central to the analysis is an investigation of the structural vulnerabilities inherent in polling methods, including sampling errors, nonresponse bias, coverage gaps, and inadequate weighting procedures. It underscores the challenges posed by rapidly evolving communication habits and demographic shifts, illustrating how these factors systematically exclude or misrepresent key voter segments, thus skewing poll results. Additionally, the thesis identifies psychological phenomena such as social desirability bias, the "shy voter" effect, late-decider volatility, and the "bandwagon effect," emphasizing their roles in distorting polling accuracy. Through detailed case studies—including notable polling failures in the United States, the United Kingdom, Quebec, and Australia—the thesis demonstrates that polling misses rarely result from isolated errors but rather from a complex interplay of methodological shortcomings and dynamic voter behaviors. It critically assesses contemporary methodological innovations designed to mitigate these errors, such as Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification (MRP), hybrid sampling designs, adaptive fieldwork, and real-time weighting adjustments. The research ultimately advocates for a dual approach: continual methodological refinement paired with heightened transparency and ethical standards. By integrating rigorous statistical techniques with an understanding of voter psychology and behavior, pollsters can better navigate the complexities of modern electorates. This thesis contributes valuable insights and recommendations aimed at enhancing the accuracy, credibility, and utility of public opinion polling, ensuring it remains a vital and trusted component of democratic discourse and decision-making.

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