Overview for the industrial trend of exploration and development of oil and natural gas in the world based on the BP/EI Statistical Review of World Energy (Part 1)
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract BP statistical review of world energy published by BP since 1952 until 2022 has been transferred to the Energy Institute (EI) since 2023 and published as the EI statistical review of world energy.However, in this text, since it has been known and familiar as BP statistics in oil and gas industry, the author has decided to refer the statistical data published by EI since 2023 to as BP statistics or BP/EI statistics.Based on BP statistics (2024) , the author has reviewed the industrial trend of exploration and development of oil and natural gas in the world.The results show that since 1970, the annual production of oil in the world has been increasing rapidly, but the reserves-to-production ratio (R/P) of oil has been on a slight increasing trend, as proved reserves have also increased rapidly.In the BP statistics (2024) , there is only data on proved reserves for 1980-2020, so I can only discuss the R/P ratios for 1980-2020, but the R/P of oil, which was 29.7 years in 1980, gradually increased to 53.4 years in 2020, the longest.This increase was due to the fact that Canadian oil sand and shale oil in the United States, which had previously been considered as unconventional resources and had not been added to proven reserves (until then treated as mining) , were approved by the US Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) to add to the proved reserves of oil, and the authorization came into effect on January 12010 (SEC, 2009) .The rapid increase in oil production and reserves from these resources has a lot to do with it.It also found that the R/P of gas has remained flat since 1970, as the worlds annual natural gas production has skyrocketed, but proved reserves have also soared.In the BP statistics (2024) , there is only data on proven reserves for gas from 1980 to 2020, so we can only discuss the gures for 1980-2020 for R/P, but the R/P peaked (62.1 years) in 2001 and decreased slightly to 48.8 years in 2020.It became clear that there was no signi cant difference compared to 1980.Based on these results, I would be fortunate if I could correct the misunderstanding that "there is only 30 or 40 years of oil left" that has been whispered in the public for decades, and to spread a correct understanding of R/P.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,004 | 0,003 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».