Canadian Exceptionalism in the Era of Right-Wing Populism? An Analysis of the Absence of an Electorally Successful Radical Right Party in Canada (2000-2021)
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The resurgence of radical right parties (RRPs) has become a major characteristic of countries across the Western world. In the post-2000 period, RRPs have achieved major electoral breakthroughs throughout Europe, and the election of Donald Trump as president of the US in 2016 has suggested that such trends are no longer limited to the European continent. Thus far, Canada has remained an outlier. This trend is especially noteworthy given the emergence of the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) in 2018, a right-wing populist party that has participated in two federal elections (i.e. 2019 and 2021) but has yet to win any seats. This dissertation asks the following question: what explains the absence of an electorally successful RRP at the national level in Canada over the past two decades (specifically 2000-2021)? To investigate this question, I draw on five major theoretical frameworks that have been used to explain the resurgence of the radical right elsewhere to formulate and test a series of hypotheses in the Canadian context. The study relies on quantitative analyses of public opinion and elections data from such datasets as the Canadian Elections Study, the Environics Focus Canada Surveys, and the Consortium on Electoral Democracy’s Democracy Checkup Survey as well as the development of a novel dataset of the immigration policies of Canadian political parties as outlined in their election manifestos. I argue that the inability of a RRP to succeed in Canada can be explained by the following factors. First, the Canadian electorate has not witnessed a significant transformation of issue orientations from first- to second-dimension cleavages. Second, native-born Canadians have become more pro-immigrant in sentiment over time. Third, Canada has not witnessed a significant shift in the party preferences of economically precarious workers towards parties of the right. Fourth, mainstream political parties have remained positive in their coverage of immigration in their national campaigns and have focused on the economic benefits of immigration. And fifth, the geographical distribution of pro- and anti-immigrant attitudes across the country’s electoral ridings is such that a nativist turn among parties is unlikely to provide substantive electoral gains.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,003 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,008 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,003 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,002 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».