Evaluation of NOx tier III regulations on shipping emissions in Canada: air quality modeling simulations
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
This study assesses the impact of implementing the NOx Tier III regulations over the Canadian waters on air quality in coastal regions of Canada, based on a series of numerical simulations using the Canadian air quality prediction model, GEM-MACH.The International Maritime Organization (IMO) established diesel engine standards for nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions from ocean-going vessels (OGVs), or ships under MARPOL Annex VI Regulation 13.Under this regulation, if a ship with keel laid on or after 1 January 2016 is transiting the North American Emission Control Area (ECA), the NOx Tier III standard would be applicable.The IMO Tier III NOx standards are the strictest of the tier standards, requiring 3.4 grams NOx/kWh for slow-speed marine propulsion engines and less for auxiliary engines.The standards were designed to significantly reduce NOx emissions compared to pre-tier engines (Tier 0), Tier I, and Tier II engines.In 2009, Canada and the United States submitted a proposal (MEPC 59/6/5) to the IMO to designate an ECA for nitrogen oxides, sulphur oxides, and particulate matter for specified portions of the United States and Canadian coastal waters (North America).In the analysis for this proposal, it was assumed that about one-third of the total fleet is expected to be compliant with Tier III standards in the 2020 performance scenario.It was estimated that the emission reductions associated with the ECA designation would be substantial, including a 23% NOx emission reduction in the 2020 ECA scenario compared to the baseline scenario.In 2020, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) contracted Starcrest Consulting Group, LLC to conduct a study to investigate the keel laid date issue under the IMO.The study found that only 0.5% of the 2019 ship calls to the four Canadian ports were IMO Tier III, a slower-than-expected deployment compared to previous generations of engines.In this study, ECCC carried out a modelling analysis on impact of implementation of the IMO NOx Tier III standards within Canadian waters on air quality, using the ECCC's air quality prediction model, GEM-MACH.Three scenarios were considered: current (1%), partial (30%), and full (100%) compliance with the NOx Tier III standards.Following the air quality modelling analysis, Health Canada (HC) conducted a health impact analysis under the three NOx Tier III compliance scenarios.The summary of the health impact analysis is attached (in Appendix) as a companion to this report. The 2019 Canadian marine shipping emission inventory and NOx Tier III compliance scenariosThe 2019 marine vessels emissions inventory was generated using the Marine Emissions Inventory Tool (MEIT) platform developed by the Cross Sectoral Energy Division (CSED) of ECCC.It is based on vessel movement data for 2019 within Canadian waters.The Canadian waters include the Arctic, the St. Lawrence Seaway transit to the Great Lakes, and the West and East coasts.Table E1 shows the estimated 2019 annual total marine shipping emissions within the Canadian waters by vessel category, fuel type, and activity.The 2019 annual total NOx emissions from marine ships traveling in the Canadian waters is estimated at 191,445 tonnes, which includes the consideration for 1% of ships in compliance with the NOx Tier III standard.The 2019 Canadian marine sector NOx emissions constitute to 10% of the national total anthropogenic NOx emissions from all sectors.v Table E1 2019 Marine shipping emissions from the vessels traveling in Canadian waters by vessel group (C2, C3), fuel type (ULSD, MDO, HFO), and activity (berthed, anchored, underway) Vessel group Activity Fuel type NOX SO2 CO CO2 VOC CH4 N2O PM2.5 PM10 Black Carbon C2 Berthed ULSD 3,061
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,002 | 0,002 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,002 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».