Essays on the labour market decisions of older workers
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
This dissertation comprises three essays examining the labour market decision-making of workers aged 50 and older in Canada and the United States. Older workers make up a large share of the labour force, so understanding their labour market decisions can inform public policy on public pension plans and public health care expenditure.In the first essay, I compare the labour market attachment of workers aged 50 to 69 in the United States and Canada from 1997 to 2019. I utilise the panel structure of the Canadian Labour Force Survey and the US Current Population Survey to create six-month and four-month panels for Canada and the United States, respectively. I use the survey questions on reasons for (1) working part-time and (2) being non-employed (unemployed or not-in-the-labour force) to determine how the reasons provided differ based on age and gender. I also examine the different types of labour force transitions within the panel and how it changes with age and gender. The descriptive results show that workers become less attached to the labour market as they age and have a preference for more short-term, flexible work arrangements. The increase in part-time employment is driven primarily by supply-side factors. Personal preference is the main reason in Canada, while retirement and/or social security earning limits is the main reason in the United States. For the workers marginally attached or not attached to the labour market, the dominant factor seems to be retirement or the ending of short-term jobs.The second essay studies the short-term impact of an involuntary job separation on the probability of re-employment and labour market exit for workers in Canada aged 50 to 69 years. Like the first essay, I use the Canadian Labour Force survey from 1997 to 2019 to create six-month panels. I use the panels to estimate linear probability models for returning to work and exiting the labour force. My results show that a prior involuntary separation increases the likelihood of labour market exit by approximately 4.7 percentage point and decreases the chance of re-employment by 5.3 percentage points. The findings suggest that an involuntary job separation is a pathway through which older workers exit the labour market.The third essay uses the US Health and Retirement Survey from 1998 to 2014 to determine whether physical activity protects the cognitive function of retired older workers aged 51 to 75 in the United States. In this essay, I first estimate causal relationships between (1) retirement and cognitive function; (2) retirement and physical activity using the eligibility ages for early and normal social security benefit claiming as instruments for retirement. I also establish the association between physical activity and cognitive function. I then analyse whether engaging in physical activity is a mechanism through which retirement impacts the cognitive outcomes of older workers. My results show that the combined effect of retiring and meeting the physical activity guidelines increases cognitive scores by approximately 0.5 points. This corresponds to a 4.5% increase in the cognitive score compared to the sample average
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,002 | 0,008 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,003 | 0,002 |
| Communication savante | 0,003 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,002 | 0,003 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,006 | 0,001 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».