Notice bibliographique
Résumé
PARTICIPANTS I Beacon Economics = Los Angeles, California; Conf. Board = Conference Board, New York, New York; Fannie Mae=Fannie Mae, Washington, D.C.; IFIS= IFIS Global Insight, Eddystone, Pennsylvania; GSU - EFC = Georgia State University, Economic Forecasting Center, Atlanta, Georgia; Moody's Economy = Moody's Economy.com, Westchester, Pennsylvania; Mortgage = Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington, D.C.; NAM = National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, D.C.; Northern Tr = Northern Trust Company, Chicago, Illinois; Perryman Gp = The Perryman Group, Waco, Texas; Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; SP UBS = UBS Bank, Salt Lake City, Utah; US Bank = U.S. Bank, Minneapolis, Minnesota; US Chamber = U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington, D.C.; Wells Fargo = Wells Fargo Bank, San Francisco, California.The U.S. economy is continuing its steady albeit snailpaced growth. Consensus expects this trend to continue well into 2015 with GDP growing at the rate of 2.23 percent between 2014-4Q and 2015-3Q. Gradual firming of consumer confidence and spending combined with business investment and expected growth in construction due to the demographic tailwind will continue to propel its growth. However, the growth appears to be below its potential, and there is room for improvement. A study by the Brookings Institution indicates that entrepreneurship, the engine of growth, has declined in the U.S. to at least a three-decade low in all sectors of the economy. High concentration of patents ownership in the hands of a few firms in the Silicon Valley is not helping either.CONSUMERSMark Zandi of Moody's believes that high-quality job growth combined with high stock values and a rebound in home prices should have boosted consumer spending more than what we are experiencing. Consensus data indicate that consumers remain skittish and are holding back. Data further show that household savings are at historically high levels. Households are expected to spend 91 cents out of a dollar on goods and services well into the third quarter of 2015.This is in contrast to the pre-2008 crisis when consumer spending exceeded disposable income due to easy credit. The high level of savings may be partially because of the lack of new and innovative products entering the market. The most exciting innovative products in recent years have been the hyped-up new versions of smart phones and tablets in an already saturated market.Growth in Disposable Personal Income is more than oneand-one-half times the growth in GDP for the consensus period 2014-4Q thru 2015-3Q. This is in part due to higher income from capital versus wage income as recently reported by Thomas Piketty in his book, Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Consensus data show that the expected Personal Consumption Expenditure is a solid 75 percent of the GDP, with growth rate slightly higher than one-and-one-half times the growth rate in GDP. This is good news because robust consumer spending is critical to economic growth. …
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,004 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».