Breaking Rules and Changing the Game: Will Shale Gas Rock the World?
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Synopsis: This article explores the evolution of shale gas impacts on global LNG markets and evaluates the implications for future change in terms of LNG trade, pricing, economics, environment, and geopolitics. The article is organized into three periods of evaluation: historical, near-term through 2020, and longer-term after 2020. It first evaluates the early historical impacts on LNG trade and markets as North American shale production has boomed in the period from 2006 through 2013. North America has not yet begun to export LNG and yet, trade and price impacts have already registered through the elimination of most of North America's previously expected import needs. Next, the article explores how the early effects may have been a harbinger of greater trade and pricing impacts to come as North American LNG exports ramp up for the period between 2015 and 2020, considering the likely evolution of global supply and demand, critical commercial developments already underway, as well as potential constraints and impediments on the near horizon. Finally, the article explores the potential long-term impacts if foreign LNG buyers are successful at importing not only North American LNG but also the underlying shale gas revolution-in terms of the technology and know-how-and industry conditions needed to achieve the sort of large scale, low cost production achieved in North America. It addresses the question of how global proliferation of shale gas production, if replicated in several shale-resource provinces worldwide, would compound the initial market, price, commercial, economic, geopolitical, and environmental impacts expected from North American LNG exports.I. IntroductionNorth American shale gas production is changing the for regional exploration and production, and having wide-ranging market, economic, and commercial impacts. The prospective export of North America's new gas surpluses as Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) under hub-indexed pricing is also the historical of the for LNG trade, contracts, and pricing- prospectively adding substantial surplus supply to global markets and aiding buyers to down the historical, seller-driven pricing mechanisms for LNG sales. But the extent and timing of shale gas' impacts on global markets is uncertain and complex.A. Breaking the Rules & Changing the GameGeneral Douglas McArthur, the United States military leader tasked to manage the post-war occupation of Japan, once said, are mostly made to be broken and are too often for the lazy to hide behind.1Some people never play by the rules. By breaking, bending, or ignoring established of the game, great entrepreneurs and innovators have redefined the way we live our lives. Over the last several decades, innovators like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Ted Turner have changed the way we communicate, receive and share information, enjoy music and entertainment, obtain news, and ultimately perceive and interact with the world around us. They did this, in part, by marrying their radical ideas about how to do things better with cutting edge technological innovation. In their respective industries, each broke the rules, made new ones, and changed the way the is played.North American shale gas has become another industry game changer, and prospective LNG exports promise to break the rules that prevail for global LNG trade. In the United States and Canada, independent energy producers have successfully developed and refined technological solutions for oil and gas production, primarily through horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (fracking), tapping into vast unconventional resources and bringing large volumes of new production to market in a highly cost-effective fashion. In so doing, these producers and technologies have already changed the for exploration and production, at least in North America. Proposing to export North American shale resources as LNG, export terminal developers and sponsors are breaking the rules of global LNG trade by bringing new low-cost, hub based pricing to market. …
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Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,002 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
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