Bibliographic record
Abstract
The information in this forecast is gathered by the Journal from sources it considers reliable. Neither the Journal nor the individual institutions providing the data guarantee accuracy; nor do any of them warrant in any way that use of the data appearing herein will enhance the business or investment performance of companies or individuals who use them.PARTICIPANTS I Beacon Economics = Los Angeles, California; Conf. Board = Conference Board, New York, New York; Fannie Mae = Fannie Mae, Washington, D.C.; Global Insight = Global Insight, Eddystone, Pennsylvania; GSU - EFC = Georgia State University, Economic Forecasting Center, Atlanta, Georgia; Moody's Economy = Moody's Economy.com, Westchester, Pennsylvania; Mortgage = Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington, D.C.; NAM = National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, D.C.; Northern Tr = Northern Trust Company, Chicago, Illinois; Perryman Gp = The Perryman Group, Waco, Texas; Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; SP UBS = UBS Bank, Salt Lake City, Utah; US Bank = U.S. Bank, Minneapolis, Minnesota; US Chamber = U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington, D.C.; Wells Fargo = Wells Fargo Bank, San Francisco, California.The Consensus Outlookfor 2014 is moderately positive. Dr. Keith Hembre, Chief Economist and Investment Strategist for U.S. Bank, believes the expansion will continue throughout the New Year barring any profound geopolitical shock. In his publication, 2014 Economic and Financial Market Review and Outlook, Hembre cites that reasons for continued growth include that the recovery began at such a depressed level therefore has plenty of room before encountering any capacity constraints, and while the federal government through Fiscal Policy will most certainly make noise, it is unlikely that any significant changes will occur until after the mid-term elections. Dr. Rajeev Dhawan of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University's Robinson College of Business, also offers a mildly positive assessment in his Forecast of the Nation. Dhawan believes the economy will putter along through the year but will be absent any real strong growth until 2015. He cites as evidence recent job numbers. While job numbers indeed have been positive, they are found primarily in low-paying fields, e.g., retail and hospitality. As such, job growth in these sectors does not translate into significant gains in purchasing power. In addition, Dhawan cites the emotional factors weighing heavily on consumer and business confidence. These issues, fueled in part due to the prior shutdown of the federal government and the continued impasse concerning the budget and debt ceilings, will continue to weigh heavily on the economy. Dr. Ray Perryman anticipates a sluggish national economy due to the reasons cited above, but in addition, there is the drag being caused by the debate over national healthcare, which has carried over negatively to hiring and business spending decisions. …
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.009 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.007 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.188 | 0.166 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".