A Comparison of Small Area Estimation Methods for Poverty Mapping
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We review main small area estimation methods for the estimation of general non-linear parameters focusing on FGT family of poverty indicators introduced by Foster, Greer and Thorbecke (1984). In particular, we consider direct estimation, the Fay-Herriot area level model (Fay and Herriot, 1979), the method of Elbers, Lanjouw and Lanjouw (2003) used by the World Bank, the empirical Best/Bayes (EB) method of Molina and Rao (2010) and its extension, the Census EB, and finally the hierarchical Bayes proposal of Molina, Nandram and Rao (2014). We put ourselves in the point of view of a practitioner and discuss, as objectively as possible, the benefits and drawbacks of each method, illustrating some of them through simulation studies.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it