Climatology and Synoptic Evolution of Major Forest Fire Events Over the Northeast U.S.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study presents a spatial and temporal climatology of major wildfires (>100 acres burned) in the Northeast U.S from 1999 to 2009 and the meteorological conditions associated with these events. About 59% of the wildfire events in this region occur in April and May, with &sim76% of all wildfires over the higher elevation (> 1000 m) regions of the Northeast occurring in these months, while &sim53% occur in the Appalachian lee and the coastal plain. The other 41% of wildfires occur in the summer, fall and early spring months. The synoptic flow patterns associated with Northeast wildfires were classified using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The most common synoptic pattern in the Appalachian high terrain region is a surface high pressure centered over the northern Appalachians (&sim46% of events). For the coastal plain fire events, the most common pattern (&sim46%) is an anticyclone extending southward from southeastern Canada and Great Lakes to the Northeast. Trajectories show that the pre-high pattern shows the greatest subsidence, greatest decrease in relative humidity, and greatest increase in temperature. Terrain sensitivity studies show that there is a 1&degC to 2&degC increase in temperature and a 0%-8% decrease in RH when there is a southwesterly flow downsloping event over the NEUS.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".