Bibliographic record
Abstract
It has been noted in many papers that primary commodity exporting economies and developing countries frequently respond to movements in the real exchange rate as part of their monetary policies. For many central banks, this variable is the primary indicator of real activity. At the same time, smoothing the real exchange rate fluctuations has certain inflationary costs. In a way, this trade-off between inflation and the real exchange rate is identical to a standard Phillips curve. This paper derives an exact theoretical expression for this “real exchange rate based Phillips curve, ” and finds empirical support for its existence in the data for a number of primary commodity exporting economies such as Australia, Canada, New Zealand and others. It turns out that the correct right-hand-side variable in the Phillips curve is not the real exchange rate itself, but rather its deviation from the fundamental value, which is a function of the international price of exported commodities. The empirical counterpart of the fundamental real exchange rate is obtained from a cointegrating equation for the real exchange rate and the countryspecific price index of exported commodities. As is frequently found in other Phillips curve studies, empirical tests point towards the accelerationist specification, which can be rationalized by dominance of adaptive expectations in price-setting behavior.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.019 | 0.007 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".