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Record W1480623022

Cyclical Recovery Making Slow Progress

2002· article· en· W1480623022 on OpenAlex
Ewald Walterskirchen

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueMonographien · 2002
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicRegional Development and Policy
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsQuarter (Canadian coin)RecessionTurning pointBusiness cycleEconomicsSeasonal adjustmentPoint (geometry)Demographic economicsEconomyGeographyMacroeconomicsPeriod (music)
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Responses by firms in the regular WIFO business survey have signalled an upturn in Austrian industrial activity for almost half a year. In April and May, judgements on current business conditions have not improved further. Nevertheless, prospects for the next few months remain positive. The international recession has been overcome. An upturn is under way, although its strength is yet uncertain. In the USA, real GDP picked up markedly both in the fourth quarter 2001 and in the first quarter 2002, supported by a decidedly pro-active policy stance. In western Europe, early expectations were somewhat disappointed, as the EU economy stagnated in the first quarter. While last year's downturn in the EU was highly synchronised with that in the USA, the indications for a rebound this year are less clear. Still, all leading indicators point to a recovery. In Austria too, confidence in the business sector has been growing for months. In particular, production expectations and other forward-looking indicators are rated much more positive, although the overall sentiment has improved no further in April and May. According to provisional calculations, manufacturing output in the first quarter matched the year-earlier level, while construction activity fell sharply in the winter season. The steeper the cyclical downturn in a sector, the more marked is also the negative seasonal profile. In the first four months of the year, some 7, 000 jobs (–3¼ percent) were lost in the construction sector from the previous year. Retail (excluding motor cars) and wholesale trade both edged up by ½ percent in volume in the first quarter, but the slump in car sales (–5 percent in real terms) dragged the sector's value added down below the year-earlier level. Passenger car purchases react rather strongly to short-term variations in incomes and costs (oil prices). Even stronger, however, are cyclical fluctuations in business investment. The latter remained sluggish in the first quarter, leading to a nominal decline by 11 percent year-on-year in imports of machinery and transportation equipment in January and February combined. Tourism, on the other hand, continued its positive trend in the winter season, with earnings rising by 4½ percent at current prices. Inflation is abating gradually. In April, the rate edged down to 1.8 percent, mainly due to an easing of prices for vegetables, price cuts for mobile telephones and of lower energy costs compared with last year. In an international comparison, Austria claims a high rank in terms of price stability: on the Harmonised Consumer Price Index, prices went up by 1.6 percent, compared with 2.4 on average for the euro area. While in some countries the changeover to euro cash money may have added to inflation, that has not been the case in Austria. As could be expected, no turnaround is as yet visible on the labour market. Official statistics give a total of 3, 155, 600 dependent employees for May, 5, 500 more than one year ago. However, this figure is less relevant for the cyclical analysis, as it includes non-working recipients of child-care benefits whose job contracts have not been terminated. The adjusted figure of jobholders (excluding child-care benefit receivers and people in military service) went down by 11, 600 year-on-year in May. The decline has been somewhat stronger than on average in the first four months of the year. Job losses in manufacturing (–13, 000 in April) and construction led to an increase in unemployment benefit payments, whereas those in transportation (postal service, telecom, railways) and the public sector were accommodated mainly by transition into retirement.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.783
Threshold uncertainty score0.328

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.053
GPT teacher head0.319
Teacher spread0.266 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it