Wetlands, temperature, and atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>and CH<sub>4</sub>coupling over the past two millennia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
[1] High-resolution records of greenhouse gas concentrations from the Law Dome Antarctic ice core show small fluctuations in atmospheric CO2 and CH4, including a 10 ppmv decrease in CO2 and a 50 ppbv increase in CH4 during the Little Ice Age. Explanations for the biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchanges that caused these fluctuations, and their impacts on global climate, are lacking. We produce here a wetland index derived from the North American Pollen Database and show that for most of the past two millennia, this index is negatively correlated (antiphase) with atmospheric CO2 levels measured in the Law Dome ice core. Our analysis indicates the potential for global wetlands to act as carbon sinks, contributing to small fluctuations in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and thereby influencing submillennial-scale climatic change. Although our wetland index–CO2 relationship is statistically significant, the relationship between our wetland index–CH4 curve is not, possibly due to the confounding influence of wildfires on CH4.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".