Detecting Change-Points in Time Series by Maximum Mean Discrepancy of Ordinal Pattern Distributions
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
As a new method for detecting change-points in high-resolution time series, we apply Maximum Mean Discrepancy to the distributions of ordinal patterns in different parts of a time series. The main advantage of this approach is its computational simplicity and robustness with respect to (non-linear) monotonic transformations, which makes it particularly well-suited for the analysis of long biophysical time series where the exact calibration of measurement devices is unknown or varies with time. We establish consistency of the method and evaluate its performance in simulation studies. Furthermore, we demonstrate the application to the analysis of electroencephalography (EEG) and electrocardiography (ECG) recordings.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it