Risk of Injury Associated with Opioid Use in Older Adults
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To estimate the dose-related risk of injuries in older adults associated with the use of low-, medium-, and high-potency opioids. DESIGN: Historical population-based cohort study: 2001 to 2003. SETTING: Quebec, Canada's, universal healthcare system. PARTICIPANTS: Four hundred three thousand three hundred thirty-nine adults aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Population-based health databases were used to measure preexisting risk factors for injuries in 2001/02 and drug use and injuries during follow-up (2003). Type and dose of opioids were measured as time-dependent variables, as were other drugs that may increase the risk of injury from sedating side-effects or hypotension. The risk of injury per one adult dose increase in opioid dose was estimated using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: During the follow-up year, 50.7% of the study population were prescribed drugs with sedating side effects, 15.3% were prescribed an opioid, 20.7% were concurrently using more than one sedating medication, and 3.7% were treated for an injury, fractures (55.1%) being the most common. After adjusting for concurrent drug use and baseline risk factors, low- (hazard ratio (HR)=1.36, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.33-1.39) and intermediate-potency (HR=1.05, 95% CI=1.02-1.07) opioids were associated with the risk of injury. Use of codeine combinations was associated with the highest risk of injury, a 127% greater risk (HR=2.27, 95% CI=2.21-2.34) per one adult dose increase. (The mean World Health Organization standardized dose in the study population was 1.71 ± 0.85 adult doses.) CONCLUSION: Opioids increase the risk of injury in older adults, particularly codeine combinations.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it