Revisiting the sustainability of current account deficit: SPSM using the panel KSS Test with a Fourier Function
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study applies the Sequential Panel Selection Method (SPSM) to test the mean reversion properties in the current account balance as percentages of GDP for the ten OECD countries (Australia, Canada, Finland, Germany, Korea, Mexico, Norway, Switzerland, United Kingdom and United States) over the span of 1981Q1– 2010Q4. SPSM classifies the whole panel into a group of stationary countries and a group of non-stationary countries. In doing so, we can clearly identify how many and which series in the panel are stationary processes. Our empirical results indicate that the mean reversion holds true for most of the OECD countries, with the exception of Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. Our results have important economic implications for the ten OECD countries.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it