MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort
Record W1489914929 · doi:10.1136/bmj.324.7346.1149

For and againstDoes risk homoeostasis theory have implications for road safetyForAgainst

2002· article· en· W1489914929 on OpenAlex
Gerald J.S. Wilde

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueBMJ · 2002
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEngineering
TopicTraffic and Road Safety
Canadian institutionsQueen's University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsExcuseRisk compensationRisk analysis (engineering)Risk perceptionActuarial sciencePerceptionMisfortunePsychologySocial psychologyBusinessLawPolitical sciencePerspective (graphical)Computer scienceMedicine

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

# Does risk homoeostasis theory have implications for road safety {#article-title-2} Risk homoeostasis (also called risk compensation) theory predicts that, as safety features are added to vehicles and roads, drivers tend to increase their exposure to collision risk because they feel better protected. Gerald Wilde provides evidence for it and suggests that it should be used to inform road safety strategies. Leon Robertson and Barry Pless, however, argue that the evidence is deeply flawed and that the theory is little better than an excuse for doing nothing # For {#article-title-3} Anyone wishing to reduce the risk of misfortune on the road to zero can do so by never using the roads, but that person would also miss all the benefits accruing from road travel and thus live a greatly diminished life. Suboptimal risk taking also occurs if a person underestimates or overestimates the danger of a given activity, because that person would either take too much risk or too little for greatest net benefit. A person learns to assess risk by perceiving the outcomes of decisions. Our intuitive assessment of risk is honed by our experience and that of others, sometimes communicated through the mass media. This feedback will thus confirm or correct a person's perception of the size of the four utility factors that determine the optimal (or target) level of risk (see box). #### Theory of risk homoeostasis While some actions entail more danger (probability×magnitude of loss) than others, there is no behaviour without some risk. The challenge, therefore, is to optimise rather than eliminate risk. This optimal, or target, level of risk is that which maximises the overall benefit (probability×amount). Four utility factors determine the target level of risk: The first two factors increase …

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Other design · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.917
Threshold uncertainty score0.419

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.022
GPT teacher head0.254
Teacher spread0.233 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Quick stats

Citations130
Published2002
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venueBMJSame topicTraffic and Road SafetyFrench-language works237,207