Implications of changing El Niño patterns for biological dynamics in the equatorial Pacific Ocean
Bibliographic record
Abstract
[1] El Niño events are known to strongly affect biological production and ecosystem structure in the tropical Pacific. Understanding and predicting biological processes in this area are hampered because the existing in situobserving system focuses primarily on physical measurements and does not observe key biological parameters; the only high spatial and temporal resolution biology-related observations are from the global array of ocean color satellites which provide an estimate of surface chlorophyll concentrations only. Since the 1990s, an apparent shift of the El Niño maximum sea-surface temperature (SST) warm anomaly from the eastern to the central equatorial Pacific has frequently been observed. Satellite observations show significant changes in chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), new production (NP) and total primary production (PP) in the equatorial Pacific associated with these new central Pacific (CP) El Niño events (also called El Niño Modoki) relative to eastern Pacific El Niños. During CP-El Niños, NP, Chl-a and PP in the central basin are depressed relative to EP-El Niños and lower values of Chl-a and PP coincide spatially with higher SST in the central Pacific. While surface Chl-a, and integrated NP and PP over the entire equatorial band, decrease during both CP and EP-El Niños, the magnitude of this decrease seems to depend more on the intensity than type of event. The changing spatial patterns have significant implications for equatorial biological dynamics if, as has been suggested, CP-El Niños increase in frequency in the future.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".